Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Jets vs. Dolphins on Monday Night Football in NFL Week 4)

Breaking down the best picks and prediction for the New York Jets-Miami Dolphins matchup in Week 4.

New York Jets quarterback Justin Fields is a great prop target in Week 4. / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Two winless teams face off on Monday Night in Week 4 of the 2025 NFL season, as the New York Jets take on the Miami Dolphins and Tua Tagovailoa.

Both of these teams have struggled to start the season, although two of New York’s losses have come on last-second field goals, a brutal way to start the season.

Meanwhile, Miami has one of the worst defenses in the NFL and could be an easy team attack in the prop market, as it has allowed over 30 points in every game so far in 2025.

The playoffs are already looking out of reach for both of these squads, but a win on Monday night could be a springboard for them to turn their season around.

All week long, the SI Betting team has shared picks for this primetime matchup, and I’ve put together some of our favorites so bettors have a one-stop shop when it comes to this AFC East battle. 

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Jets vs. Dolphins

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• New York Jets Moneyline (+130) vs. Miami Dolphins – Iain MacMillan
• Garrett Wilson Anytime TD (+155) – Peter Dewey
• Tua Tagovailoa 1+ Interceptions (-107) – Peter Dewey
• Justin Fields OVER 45.5 Rushing Yards (-110) – Peter Dewey

New York Jets Moneyline (+130) vs. Miami Dolphins – Iain MacMillan

Earlier this week, SI’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared his favorite pick for this game in his Road to 272 column – where he bets on every game, every week – and he’s taking New York to win:

There's little to separate these two 0-3 teams. They've both had disastrous starts to their season. The Jets have been better defensively, while the Dolphins have been better offensively, but as a whole, this is an AFC East matchup to forget. They both have a net yards per play of -0.7, rank 23rd and 24th in EPA per play, and 28th and 32nd in opponent EPA per play. Despite all of that, the Dolphins are set as 2.5-point home favorites.

In this true coin flip of a divisional game, I'll take the Jets on the moneyline as an underdog and hope things break their way. The apparent implosion of the Dolphins' locker room should work in our favor with Aaron Glenn and the Jets looking like they're at least building towards something.

Garrett Wilson Anytime TD (+155) – Peter Dewey

Garrett Wilson is far and away the most dynamic option for the Jets on offense, and he could find the end zone for the third time this season: 

This season, Garrett Wilson has found the end zone two times for the Jets, scoring in Week 1 and Week 3 while receiving 30 targets in three games.

Wilson showed a nice rapport with Justin Fields in Week 1, catching seven of his nine targets for 95 yards and a score. He then found the end zone with Tyrod Taylor under center in Week 3.

The Miami defense has been awful in the 2025 season, allowing six touchdowns through the air while ranking dead last in the league in EPA/Pass.

Tua Tagovailoa 1+ Interceptions (-107) – Peter Dewey

I’m fading Tua Tagovailoa when it comes to his interception prop, as he’s thrown one or more in every game in 2025: 

This season, Tua Tagovailoa has at least one pick in every game, throwing four total. 

While the Jets are just 26th in the NFL in EPA/Pass this season, I have a hard time trusting Tagovailoa, especially since he lacks mobility in the pocket and doesn’t love to take a lot of big hits. 

The Jets have yet to pick off a pass this season, but Tua has posted a career-high 4.5% interception percentage this season. I’ll gladly fade him on Monday night. 

Justin Fields OVER 45.5 Rushing Yards (-110) – Peter Dewey

Could this be yet another big game on the ground for Fields? He’s cleared this prop twice in as many games in 2025: 

Justin Fields exited the Jets’ Week 2 matchup early, but he ran for 49 yards on five carries in that matchup, the second time this season that he’s cleared this number. 

Fields is averaging 5.7 yards per carry and has already ran the ball 17 times in less than two games this season.

The Dolphins have given up 82 rushing yards and three rushing scores to quarterbacks this season, and I think Fields could have a big day on the ground against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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