Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Steelers vs. Bengals on Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 7)

Breaking down the top picks and prediction for the Pittsburgh Steelers-Cincinnati Bengals matchup on Thursday night in Week 7.

Pittsburgh Steelers running back Jaylen Warren is a sneaky prop target in Week 7. / Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

The Pittsburgh Steelers are off to a strong start in the Aaron Rodgers era, winning four of their first five games ahead of Thursday’s matchup with the struggling Cincinnati Bengals.

Joe Burrow’s toe injury has tanked Cincy’s season, as the team has lost four games in a row and has traded for veteran Joe Flacco in a last-ditch effort to save the 2025 season. 

The Bengals are coming off a loss – although they did cover the spread – in Week 6 against the Green Bay Packers, and oddsmakers have set them as home underdogs in Week 7. 

The Steelers continue to play winning football under Mike Tomlin, and Aaron Rodgers (10 touchdowns, three interceptions) appears to be having a resurgent season in 2025. 

Pittsburgh ranks 13th in the NFL in EPA/Play on offense, and it moved up to 12th in EPA/Play on defense after an impressive win over the Cleveland Browns in Week 6. Meanwhile, Cincy is 31st in EPA/Play on offense and 29th in EPA/Play on defense.

So, bettors shouldn't be surprised to see the Steelers as 5.5-point favorites in this game.

For bettors looking to make some picks for this standalone matchup, the SI Betting team has you covered with game picks, prop bets and anytime touchdown scorer bets for Thursday night in Week 7. 

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Steelers vs. Bengals

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 (-110) vs. Cincinnati Bengals – Iain MacMillan
• Ja’Marr Chase Anytime TD (+135) – Peter Dewey
• DK Metcalf OVER 59.5 Receiving Yards (-112) – Peter Dewey
• Jaylen Warren OVER 50.5 Rushing Yards (-111) – Peter Dewey

Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 (-110) vs. Cincinnati Bengals – Iain MacMillan

Earlier this week, SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan shared his favorite bet for this matchup in his Road to 272 column – where he picks every game, every week – and he’s backing the Steelers on the road: 

Unless the Cincinnati Bengals are playing against a team that's as bad as they are, I can't bet on them to cover a spread unless it's over a touchdown. The Bengals have no redeeming qualities on either side of the ball, ranking 30th in EPA per Play and 29th in opponent EPA per play. They also rank second last in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at -1.6.

Meanwhile, I may not have been as high on the Steelers as maybe I should have been last week. The Steelers are ninth in the NFL in DVOA, and Aaron Rodgers has shown that he can give them enough production at quarterback to let the coaching and defense lead them to wins and covers. Despite the recent trends of divisional underdogs winning on Thursday Night Football, I simply can't find a reason to bet the Bengals.

Ja’Marr Chase Anytime TD (+135) – Peter Dewey

Even with the Cincy offense struggling, Ja’Marr Chase is a must bet to find the end zone at this number after going off the last two weeks: 

Bengals superstar Ja’Marr Chase is one of the safest bets in the NFL to find the end zone week in and week out, as he commands a massive target share in this offense.

Chase has 16 catches on 22 targets in his last two games, finding the end zone three times in the process.

He showed a really solid rapport with Flacco in Week 6, catching 10 of the 12 passes thrown his way for 94 yards and a score. Chase has four touchdowns this season, but he’s been able to make things happen in garbage time the last two weeks with the Bengals forced to throw the ball.

I could see a similar outcome in Week 7, and Chase’s pure volume is enough to take him at plus money to score for the fifth time in 2025. 

DK Metcalf OVER 59.5 Receiving Yards (-112) – Peter Dewey

This is a great matchup for DK Metcalf and the Steelers passing game, as Cincy ranks 29th in the NFL EPA/Pass on defense: 

Aaron Rodgers and DK Metcalf are starting to find their groove together, as the star wideout had 126 receiving yards in Week 4 and 95 in Week 6. 

He saw a season-high nine targets in Week 6, and now he’s taking on a Bengals defense that has allowed the second-most passing yards (1,551) in the NFL this season.

Metcalf should be able to get loose against this secondary, and Trey Hendrickson's injury could be a major blow to the Bengals’ pass rush. 

Metcalf has cleared 59.5 yards in three of his five appearances this season, going for 83 or more yards in each of those games. 

Jaylen Warren OVER 50.5 Rushing Yards (-111) – Peter Dewey

Jaylen Warren missed the Steelers’ Week 4 game, but he returned to a pretty sizable role in Week 6, making him a player to target on Thursday: 

After missing Week 4 against the Minnesota Vikings with a knee injury, Jaylen Warren returned in Week 6 and was the lead back for Pittsburgh.

Warren had 11 carries for 52 yards (he added two receptions as well) and played in 52.5 percent of the team’s offensive snaps. Overall, Warren has played in 58.4 percent of the offensive snaps in the games that he’s played in.

This is a great matchup against a Cincy defense that is 29th in the NFL in EPA/Play and allowing 4.4 yards per carry this season. Only the Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills and Dallas Cowboys have allowed more rushing yards than the Bengals, who gave up 93 yards on the ground to Josh Jacobs in Week 6.

As long as Warren remains in the mix for double-digit carries, he should be able to clear this line on Thursday night.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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