Best NFL Prop Bets Today for Week 11 (It's Time to Sell Your A.J. Brown Stock)

Iain MacMillan | Nov 16, 2025

Bet the UNDER on A.J. Brown's receptions total against the Lions in Week 11. / Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

Before today's NFL action begins, it's time to explore the world of player prop betting. Each week, I write a Player Prop Countdown where I break down my top 10 player props for this week's NFL action.

If you don't want all 10 and just want to read about my top three, you're in the right spot. I'm going to give you my top three props for today's slate of games, including fading the Eagles' primary receiver on Sunday Night Football.

Best NFL Prop Bets Today for Week 11

• Josh Jacobs OVER 80.5 Rushing Yards (-115) via DraftKings
• A.J. Brown UNDER 4.5 Receptions (-135) via Caesars
• Cam Ward UNDER 186.5 Passing Yards (-112) via DraftKings

Josh Jacobs OVER 80.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

The Giants' run defense continues to be the worst in the NFL, ranking last in opponent rush EPA and last in opponent yards per carry, giving up 5.5 yards per carry. I wouldn't be surprised if the Packers keep things simple and hand the ball to Josh Jacobs early and often in this game. If they do, he has a chance to have a field day against this Giants defense.

A.J. Brown UNDER 4.5 Receptions (-135)

I don't have any metrics to back this bet up, but A.J. Brown has become more and more vocal throughout the season about his issues with the Eagles' offense. He called it a "s*** show" during a livestream this week while advising people who roster him in fantasy to drop him. The problem has gotten loud enough at this point that I expect it to significantly hurt his production. Either he's going to stop playing as hard, or the offense may just set him aside and focus on plays that will get the ball in the hands of players whose attitude isn't a disservice to the team. This could add up to a great opportunity to fade the Eagles' receiver on Sunday night against a very good Lions defense.

Cam Ward UNDER 186.5 Passing Yards (-112)

I'm baffled as to why Cam Ward's passing yards total is so high. He has completed just 57.6% of passes this season, while averaging only six yards per throw and 195.6 passing yards per game. Now, he has to face the best secondary in the NFL. The Texans rank first in opponent dropback EPA, second in opponent dropback success rate, third in opponent yards per pass attempt (5.6), and fourth in opponent passing yards per game at 171. They have allowed 17 fewer passing yards per game than what Ward's total passing yards is set at.

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