NFL Player Prop Countdown: Top 10 Prop Bets for Week 11 (Fade Cam Ward Against Texans' Defense)

Iain MacMillan | Nov 13, 2025

Cam Ward's passing yards total is too high against the Texans in Week 11. / Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

We took a slight step back in the Week 10 edition of the Player Prop Countdown after Jalen Hurts went just one yard over his rushing yards total on Monday Night Football. That brought our record to 5-5 for -0.47 units, which means our season-to-date record for the countdown is 47-49-4 for -4.77 units.

It's time to begin the Week 11 edition of the Player Prop Countdown.

All odds from FanDuel Sportsbook

10) Michael Penix Jr. Interception (+126)

It pains me as a Falcons fan to bet against my quarterback, but I can't look past the fact that Michael Penix Jr. has a bad throw rate of 25.1%, which is 3% worse than any other quarterback in the NFL. He has only thrown three interceptions this season, but if he continues to throw bad passes at this high of rate, the interceptions are going to come sooner rather than later. I like this bet at the +126 price tag.

9) Derrick Henry UNDER 76.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

There aren't many things the Browns do well, but stopping the run is certainly one of them. They rank second in opponent rush EPA, second in opponent rush success rate, and second in opponent yards per carry, allowing just 3.6 yards per rush. Remember, Derrick Henry ran for just 23 yards in their Week 2 meeting, averaging a measly 2.1 yards per rush. I think his yards total is too high in the rematch.

8) Jonnu Smith Anytime Touchdown (+240)

The Steelers' tight ends have a favorable matchup ahead of this weekend. Remember, when these two teams played last month, the Steelers' tight ends combined for four total touchdowns. The Bengals have now given up the most touchdowns to opposing tight ends with 11, which is four more than any other team in the NFL. Jonnu Smith is at slightly longer odds than Pat Freiermuth, despite Smith still playing around 20% more offensive snaps per game. He's worth a bet to find the end zone at +240.

7) Rico Dowdle OVER 88.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

It's hard to throw the ball against the Falcons. but you can certainly run the ball against them. The Falcons rank 28th in opponent rush EPA, 29th in opponent rush success rate, and they allow 4.9 yards per carry. Just look at last week's game against the Colts when Jonathan Taylor went off for 200+ yards on the ground. That's good news for Panthers fans. Rico Dowdle has been fantastic for them this season, averaging 5.3 yards per rush.

6) James Cook UNDER 79.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' defense has quietly been one of the best defenses in the NFL over the past handful of weeks, and their run defense has been dominant. They're fifth in opponent rush EPA, first in opponent rush success rate, and they allow just 4.2 yards per carry. That could lead to the Bills' starting running back, James Cook, struggling to get the ball moving at a consistent pace. I'll take the UNDER on his rushing yards total of 79.5.

5) Rashee Rice OVER 73.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Keep an eye on the Broncos' injury report this week. Patrick Surtain is listed as questionable, and if he doesn't suit up against the Chiefs, it could lead to a massive game for the Chiefs' primary receiver, Rashee Rice. Rice has seen 7+ targets in all three of his starts since returning from his suspension. He has reached 80+ receiving yards in two of those three starts.

4) Tua Tagovailoa Longest Completion OVER 35.5 Yards (-115)

The Commanders' defense has been horrific this season. They have allowed 8.4 yards per pass attempt, which is 0.6 more yards than the next-worst secondary. They have also allowed the most 20+ yard completions with 36, and they've also allowed the most 40+ yard passing plays with 10. That should set Tua Tagovailoa up to do some damage against the Commanders in Madrid.

3) Josh Jacobs OVER 81.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

The Giants' run defense continues to be the worst in the NFL, ranking last in opponent rush EPA and last in opponent yards per carry, giving up 5.5 yards per carry. I wouldn't be surprised if the Packers keep things simple and hand the ball to Josh Jacobs early and often in this game. If they do, he has a chance to have a field day against this Giants defense.

2) A.J. Brown UNDER 4.5 Receptions (-148)

I don't have any metrics to back this bet up, but A.J. Brown has become more and more vocal throughout the season about his issues with the Eagles' offense. He called it a "s*** show" during a livestream this week while advising people who roster him in fantasy to drop him. The problem has gotten loud enough at this point that I expect it to significantly hurt his production. Either he's going to stop playing as hard, or the offense may just set him aside and focus on plays that will get the ball in the hands of players whose attitude isn't a disservice to the team. This could add up to a great opportunity to fade the Eagles' receiver on Sunday night against a very good Lions defense.

1) Cam Ward UNDER 193.5 Passing Yards (-115)

I'm baffled as to why Cam Ward's passing yards total is so high. He has completed just 57.6% of passes this season, while averaging only six yards per throw and 195.6 passing yards per game. Now, he has to face the best secondary in the NFL. The Texans rank first in opponent dropback EPA, second in opponent dropback success rate, third in opponent yards per pass attempt (5.6), and fourth in opponent passing yards per game at 171. They have allowed 22 fewer passing yards per game than what Ward's total passing yards is set at.

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