Top Shelf Picks: Best NHL Bets and Props Today (Bet Maple Leafs as Underdogs in Game 5)

Iain MacMillan | May 14, 2025

The Maple Leafs are home underdogs against the Panthers in Game 5 on Wednesday night. / Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

There's a chance on Wednesday night that we'll see the first team to punch their ticket to the Conference Finals as the Edmonton Oilers take a 3-1 series lead to Vegas to take on the Golden Knights in Game 5.

In the Eastern Conference, the Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers will face each other in a pivotal Game 5. The winner of tonight's game will hold a 3-2 series lead with a chance to advance to the Eastern Conference Final in Game 6 in Florida.

Let's dive into my best bets for tonight's games.

Best NHL Picks Today

• Maple Leafs (+118) vs. Panthers via FanDuel
• Auston Matthews Anytime Goal (+160) via FanDuel
• Oilers vs. Golden Knights OVER 6.5 (-120) via BetMGM
• Connor McDavid Anytime Goal (+160) via FanDuel

Maple Leafs vs. Panthers Prediction

There's no sense citing advanced analytics at this point of the series. Have the Panthers dominated the Maple Leafs in that category so far? Absolutely, but the style of play the Maple Leafs play doesn't lend itself to advanced metrics as they ranked in the bottom half of the NHL in most areas all season, despite winning their division.

The Maple Leafs didn't have their strong shooting in Game 4 that they've had all season, but they still have the second highest shooting percentage in the second round at 12.5%, which leads me to believe that part of their game will bounce back tonight. Joseph Woll looking strong between the pipes in Sunday night is also a promising sign.

It's time for Toronto to bounce back tonight.

Pick: Maple Leafs +118

Maple Leafs vs. Panthers Prop Bet

Auston Matthews has only scored twice this postseason, but it's not for a lack of creating chances. he has 5.4 expected goals so far in the playoffs, tied for the third highest mark amongst all players in the postseason. If the Leafs want to win this series, and tonight, they need their captain to pop a goal or two. It's now or never for Matthews.

Pick: Auston Matthews Anytime Goal +160

Oilers vs. Golden Knights Prediction

The Oilers star power has outshined the depth of the Golden Knights so far this series which makes me want to back Edmonton to close out the series tonight, but I still don't trust their goaltending. We have seen too many bad postseason performance from Stuart Skinner to believe he's going to be the same guy that shut the Golden Knights out in game 4.

So, instead of backing the Oilers, I'm going to take the OVER tonight. We could see a high-scoring affair as the Golden Knights will likely play a more aggressive style of hockey with their backs up against the wall facing elimination.

Pick: OVER 6.5 (-120)

Oilers vs. Golden Knights Prediction

Connor McDavid has scored three times in the playoffs along with 14 assists, but he's still been creating plenty of scoring chances. He's tied with the Matthews for third in the playoffs in expected goals at 5.4. With a chance to advance to the Western Conference final, I expect McDavid to find the back of the net tonight.

Pick: Connor McDavid Anytime Goal (+160)

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