Top Shelf Picks: Best NHL Bets and Props Today (How to Bet Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Game 1)

Iain MacMillan | May 5, 2025

The Maple Leafs are home underdogs against the Panthers on Monday night. / John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

The first round of the NHL Playoffs is in the books and the second round is set to big on Monday night. The first series to begin is an Atlantic Division showdown between the Florida Panthers and Toronto Maple Leafs.

Despite being on their home ice, the Maple Leafs find themselves as underdogs against the defending Stanley Cup champions. Let's dive into my best bets for tonight's Game 1.

• NHL Season-to-Date Record: 174-167-8 (-3.85 units)

Top NHL Picks Today

• Panthers (-125) via BetMGM
• UNDER 5.5 (-118) via DraftKings
• Matthew Tkachuk UNDER 2.5 Shots on Goal (+105) via DraftKings

Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Prediction

The Panthers are favored to win this series and are favorites to win the Stanley Cup, and for good reason. They finished second in the NHL in expected goals percentage per 60 minutes in the regular season, but ranked 28th in shooting percentage, which is what cost them the Atlantic Division.

They fixed that issue in the first round of the playoffs, scoring on 14.84% of their shots on goal, the second-best mark amongst the 16 teams that played in the first round. That sets up for a dangerous opponent for the Maple Leafs, and with the Panthers having a bit of extra rest ahead of the second round, I think they steal a game from Toronto.

Pick: Panthers -125

Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Total Bet

The Panthers and Maple Leafs were two of the best defensive teams in the first round of the playoffs. The Panthers ranked second in expected goals against per 60 minutes at 2.36, and the Maple Leafs ranked third in that stat at 2.73.

Not only that, but both goalies are among the best remaining in the postseason. Anthony Stolarz of the Maple Leafs led the league in save percentage, had a solid .906 save percentage in the regular season, then followed it up with a .901 save percentage in the first round against the Lightning.

I expect the entire series to be low-scoring, including tonight's Game 1.

Pick: UNDER 5.5 (-118)

Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Prediction

Matthew Tkachuk and his history of getting under the skin of his opponents have led people to believe he plays a bigger role on this team than he does. In the first round against the Lightning, he reached 3+ shots on goal just once in their five-game series and didn't have a single game where he had more than 16:32 of ice time.

I'm shocked we can get plus-money on him finishing with fewer than 2.5 shots in Game 1.

Pick: Matthew Tkachuk UNDER 2.5 Shots on Goal (+110)

---

Are you new to DraftKings? Sign up today and place a $5 bet to earn a guaranteed $200 in bonus bets. Win or lose, DraftKings will issue six $25 bonus bets instantly.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!