Top Shelf Picks: Best NHL Bets and Props Today (Hurricanes Will Avoid Sweep vs. Panthers)

The Hurricanes are significant underdogs against the Panthers in Game 4.
The Hurricanes are significant underdogs against the Panthers in Game 4. / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

The Florida Panthers have a chance to return to the Stanley Cup Finals for the third straight year tonight when they take on the Carolina Hurricanes in Game 4 with a 3-0 series lead.

The Panthers have won the first three games of this series by a combined score of 16-4. Does that mean we should just bet on the Panthers tonight? Not so fast.

Let's dive into my best bets.

Top NHL Picks Today

Hurricanes vs. Panthers Game 4 Prediction

It's easier said than done, but if we throw out the final scores of the three games in this series, it's crazy to me that the Hurricanes are +162 underdogs to the Panthers in this game. Sure, you could say "they've given up", but I'm not ready to admit that. This Hurricanes team would never be this big of underdogs in the regular season, and pricing the odds based on a three-game sample size is ludicrous.

Even from an advanced metrics standpoint, this series has been as dominant as the final scores suggest. The Panthers have an expected goal differential of just +0.22, which is significantly different from the actual goal differential of +12. In fact, the Hurricanes have been the better team from a CORSI% at 54.99%.

At this price tag, I'll bet the Hurricanes to avoid the sweep.

Pick: Hurricanes +162

Hurricanes vs. Panthers Game 4 Props

Andrei Svechnikov hasn't scored yet this series, but he's still fourth in the NHL Playoffs at expected goals at 7.1, and he's already found the back of the net eight times in total. Despite that being the case, he's set at +255 to score in tonight's must-win game. At that price tag, that's a bet I'm willing to make.

Pick: Andrei Svechnikov Anytime Goal (+255)

It's time to buy low on Carter Verhaeghe, who has been overshadowed by his teammates in this series. He hasn't gone over 2.5 shots on goal in a game, but he had seven attempts in Game 2 and four attempts in Game 3, so it's not like he's not getting opportunities; it's more that his attempts aren't finding the net.

At plus-money, this is going to be my one bet on the Panthers tonight.

Pick: Carter Verhaeghe OVER 2.5 Shots on Goal (+115)


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Iain MacMillan
IAIN MACMILLAN

Originally from Nova Scotia, Iain MacMillan is a senior editor covering betting, with a focus on NFL, NHL, and golf. He hosts the Bacon Bets Podcast and has been featured on VSIN, BetQL and Monumental Sports Network. He is a member of the Metropolitan Golf Writers Association and his beloved Falcons and Maple Leafs break his heart on a yearly basis.