Best Picks Against the Spread for Every College Football Bowl Game

Travis Hunter (left), Jaxson Dart (center left), Cam Ward (center right) and Sheduer Sanders (right) lead their teams into the college football bowl season.
Travis Hunter (left), Jaxson Dart (center left), Cam Ward (center right) and Sheduer Sanders (right) lead their teams into the college football bowl season. / Jaxson Dart: Wes Hale/Getty ImagesSheduer Sanders: Ric Tapia/Getty ImagesCam Ward: Doug Murray/Icon Sportswire via Getty ImagesTravis Hunter: Andrew Wevers/Getty Images

Bowl season is here!

Starting on Saturday, December 14th with the Salute to Veterans Bowl all the way until Monday, January 20th with the National Championship Game, there will be postseason college football action! With so many games, and so much information to crunch, including who will be in the transfer portal and which coaches will be on the sidelines, our staff of writers and betting experts are here help guide you through bowl season with winners along the way. 

Sports Illustrated senior writer Pat Forde, who has a full bowl breakdown that you can read here, shared his picks for each bowl game below. He’s joined by SI staff writer the First to Forde winner, college football betting expert Reed Wallach. 

Get ready for bowl season here!

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on Friday, December 13th.

Bowl Records

  • Pat Forde: 20-26
  • Bryan Fischer: 20-26
  • Reed Wallach: 24-22

National Championship Game

Ohio State vs. Notre Dame

Pat: Notre Dame +8.5

The Fighting Irish are, frankly, up against it here in terms of healthy bodies and reliable depth. But they have displayed a ferocious survival instinct, finding ways to win in all three phases of the game and making big plays when they had to.

Marcus Freeman's in-game coaching growth has been impressive since the Northern Illinois debacle -- not to mention the 10-men-on-the-field gaffe against this same opponent in 2023. Most importantly for Notre Dame, the Irish have elite in the one area where they need to be -- the defensive backfield. They have players who can cover the Ohio State wide receivers.

So I expect Notre Dame to hang around in this game -- and the longer they hang around, the more the pressure mounts on the Buckeyes. I believe Ohio State will win, but by a touchdown or less.

Bryan: Ohio State 8.5

It's been a strange fall with so many favorites covering, so we'll keep up the trend in the final college football game of the season. The Buckeyes had the best roster in the sport at the beginning of the year and, while it took them a few twists, turns, and bumps to get here, they have the superior side coming into the title game.

The Irish can keep things close by turning this into a fistfight for a few quarters, but there are just too many big play weapons wearing scarlet and grey for that to be the case by the time the confetti falls. 

Reed: Ohio State -8.5

Completed Bowl Games

Salute to Veterans Bowl Prediction and Pick

Western Michigan vs. South Alabama

Pat: South Alabama -8.5

Bryan: Western Michigan +8.5

If this were a non-conference matchup at the beginning of the season, I’d lean heavily toward the Jaguars in their home state given the relative level of the Sun Belt against the MAC. But this is bowl season and neither side are quite at full strength, most notably with South Alabama RB Fluff Bothwell entering the transfer portal. The Broncos should play hard enough to keep things within the number in what could be an entertaining back-and-forth game.

Reed: South Alabama -8.5

Frisco Bowl Prediction and Pick

Memphis vs. West Virginia

Pat: Memphis -4.5

Bryan: Memphis -4.5

Reed: Memphis -4.5

For starters, Memphis head coach Ryan Silverfield has consistently gotten good results in bowl season, winning every bowl game as the Tigers head coach since the team lost to Penn State in the Cotton Bowl in 2019. That’s notable as West Virginia will be coached by interim Chad Scott in the Frisco Bowl after the Mountaineers fired Neal Brown after the regular season. 

The Mountaineers’ pass defense has been among the worst in the country all season, ranking 129th in EPA/Pass and 131st in coverage grading, per Pro Football Focus. This is a big issue against Henigan and the Memphis offense that has a veteran signal caller under center and is averaging more than 35 points per game. 

Boca Raton Bowl Prediction and Pick

Western Kentucky vs. James Madison

Pat: James Madison -8.5

Bryan: James Madison -8.5

It seems like ages ago that the Dukes were hanging 70 on the North Carolina Tar Heels. Now Bill Belichick is in Chapel Hill and JMU will be attempting to win their first bowl game in program history. The way the Hilltoppers got run off the field in the CUSA Championship Game, combined with a lack of quarterbacks to take snaps for this game, has me all-in on Bob Chesney getting to nine wins in his first season after a victory in Boca.

Reed: Western Kentucky +8.5

LA Bowl Prediction and Pick

Cal vs. UNLV

Pat: Cal -1.5

This feels like one of those random number generator-type bowl games between a Power Four team that has made an offensive coordinator change, won’t have their starting quarterback, and will get to play in their actual time zone in an NFL stadium. The Rebels won’t have their head coach (nor some of their coaching staff’s full attention), but the biggest hurdle to pulling a slight upset could be going up against a Cal defense that is allowing just 3.2 yds/rush. Give me the Bears. 

Bryan: Cal -1.5

Reed: Cal -1.5

New Orleans Bowl Prediction and Pick

Georgia Southern vs. Sam Houston

Pat: Georgia Southern -6.5

Bryan: Georgia Southern -6.5

Clay Helton could really use a win in this game and the Eagles’ high-flying offense has a chance to make up for the fact that their defense can give up big plays left and right. Throw in a coaching change at Sam Houston State and the fact that Georgia Southern played in a far superior league and it’s an easy lean to cover the number in what could be a higher-scoring affair.

Reed: Sam Houston State +6.5

Cure Bowl Prediction and Pick

Jacksonville State vs. Ohio

Pat: Ohio -3.5

Bryan: Ohio -3.5

Call this the interim coach bowl with both programs dealing with some turnover up top. The Bobcats probably still haven’t fully recovered from celebrating their first MAC title in ages but the warm Orlando weather and a more solid group on both sides of the ball should give them a slight edge over the CUSA champs.

Reed: Ohio -3.5

Gasparilla Bowl Prediction and Pick

Pat: Florida -13.5

Bryan: Florida -13.5

The Green Wave’s quarterback room is basically barren at this point and that’s even before considering the fact that this is an AAC program going up against a red-hot SEC team right up the road from Gainesville, Fla. Billy Napier will want all the momentum he can gather going into 2025 so the Gators win this one big.

Reed: Tulane +13.5

College Football Playoff First Round Prediction and Pick

Indiana vs. Notre Dame

Pat: Notre Dame -7.5

Bryan: Indiana +7.5

The initial first round game of the College Football Playoff is a mismatch in terms of name brands but isn’t when it comes to things on the field. The Hoosiers are a better opponent than anything on the Irish’s schedule this year and they have the exact kind of style – explosive on offense, built to stop the run defensively – that will pose problems for the home side in this one. The touchdown and a hook is way too much to trust Notre Dame to cover in what figures to be a close, low-scoring game where turnovers prove critical out in the bitter cold of Indiana. 

Reed: Indiana +7.5

College Football Playoff First Round Prediction and Pick

SMU vs. Penn State

Pat: SMU +8.5

Bryan: Penn State -8.5

Despite the loss to the Clemson Tigers at the last second in the ACC title game, SMU is a very good team that shouldn’t be taken lightly when they head into the white out conditions at Beaver Stadium in the first round. The Ponies are solid enough in the trenches to put a scare in James Franklin’s crew for three quarters but ultimately the depth and explosive playmakers give Penn State a double-digit margin at home. 

Reed: Penn State -8.5

College Football First Round Prediction and Pick

Clemson vs. Texas

Pat: Clemson +11.5

Bryan: Texas -11.5

I have a hard time seeing how Clemson will score consistently against an excellent Texas defense to make this one as competitive as it should be between shades of orange. The Longhorns have not been operating at their offensive peak with Quinn Ewers at quarterback the last few games of the regular season but they’ll have the opportunity to get right against a Tigers defense that ranks 59th in yards/play allowed. 

Reed: Texas -11.5

College First Round Playoff Prediction and Pick

Tennessee vs. Ohio State

Pat: Tennessee +7.5

Bryan: Ohio State -7.5

So much of this line, and the general feelings about this matchup, seems dictated by that last look at the Buckeyes and how terrible they played against the Michigan Wolverines. Last I checked though, the Vols don’t have winged helmets nor wear anything close to a shade of maize and blue, so it’s an easy lean at home to go with the more talented bunch to cover the number.

Reed: Tennessee +7.5

Myrtle Beach Bowl Prediction and Pick

Coastal Carolina vs. UTSA

Pat: Coastal Carolina +8.5

Bryan: Coastal +8.5

The Roadrunners seemed to have figured some things out in the second half of the year and played much better than their 6-6 record indicated. They certainly seem like the moneyline play but with Coastal Carolina playing at home and having the crowd advantage on the teal turf, something says they can come through the back door to get a cover before the clock hits zeros.

Reed: UTSA -8.5

Potato Bowl Prediction and Pick

Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State

Pat: Northern Illinois -2.5

Bryan:  Fresno State +2.5

This will be a nice glimpse at what kind of football future NIU could have between playing a Mountain West team on the blue turf to actually taking on the Bulldogs. Aside from the win over Notre Dame in September, the Huskies have been a bit all over the place when it comes to playing close games so give the slight edge to the team that is no stranger to playing in Boise. 

Reed: Fresno State +2.5

Hawai’i Bowl Prediction and Pick

South Florida vs. San Jose State

Pat: San Jose State -3.5

Bryan: San Jose State-3.5

The only hesitation in this one is figuring out if Ken Niumatalolo and his staff will be distracted from game prep more than normal given their ties to the islands. Otherwise, the Spartans are the clear choice to cover the number against the team making the longest trek to a bowl game this postseason.

Reed: San Jose State -3.5

Sports Bowl Prediction and Pick

Pitt vs. Toledo

Pat: Pitt -7.5

Bryan: Pitt -7.5

Despite knocking off a Power Four opponent this season, the Rockets have largely underachieved and will be dealing with the usual nature of their roster getting raided by the Transfer Portal. Pitt really backed into this game but still have more than enough to cover the number even with the hook.

Reed: Toledo +7.5

Guaranteed Rate Bowl Prediction and Pick

Kansas State vs. Rutgers

Pat: Rutgers +6.5

Bryan: Kansas State -6.5

Both of these two teams should take bowl prep pretty seriously given who their head coaches are but Kansas State was the far better team in 2024 and that continues with a win over a Big Ten side that will have a hard time scoring in this one.

Reed: Rutgers +6.5

68 Ventures Bowl Prediction and Pick

Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green

Pat: Bowling Green -6.5

Bryan: Bowling Green -6.5

Reed: Arkansas State +6.5

Falcons coach Scot Loeffler expects all his starters to play, which would notably include TE Harold Fannin Jr., who is attempting to set a few records in this game. Bowling Green looked like one of the best teams in the MAC this year when they were operating at full capacity and should have enough to beat the Red Wolves by more than a touchdown. 

Armed Forces Bowl Prediction and Pick

Navy vs. Oklahoma

Pat: Navy +8.5

Bryan: Navy +8.5

Who exactly is going to play offense for Oklahoma in this game? The rash of opt-outs and transfer portal departures for the Sooners have me thinking that the Midshipmen not only cover that large number, but win outright despite Brent Venables having extra time to prepare for the option.

Reed: Navy +8.5

Birmingham Bowl Prediction and Pick

Vanderbilt vs. Georgia Tech

Pat: Georgia Tech -2.5

Bryan: Vanderbilt +2.5

Bowl games are precious commodities for the Commodores and something says Diego Pavia and company will be taking this one extra seriously as a result. Not sure that’s the case for the Yellow Jackets, which will be missing some key players and probably won’t be thrilled at the trip to Birmingham.

Reed: Vanderbilt +2.5

Liberty Bowl Prediction and Pick

Texas Tech vs. Arkansas

Pat: Texas Tech -2.5

Bryan: Texas Tech -2.5

Long live the SWC with this matchup, which could produce pretty much any result on the scoreboard and it wouldn’t be a surprise. Slight edge to the Red Raiders, for no other reason than for having the ability to take advantage of that Razorbacks defense and being no stranger to slowing down dual-threat quarterbacks.

Reed: Texas Tech -2.5

Holiday Bowl Prediction and Pick

Washington State vs. Syracuse

Pat: Syracuse -7.5

Bryan: Washington State +7.5

Both of these coaching staffs did a phenomenal job this season under very different circumstances, from Fran Brown taking over in New York to Jake Dickert dealing with the collapse of his conference. Assuming John Mateer starts at QB for the Cougars, they can keep things close, if not win outright. 

Reed: Washington State +7.5

Las Vegas Bowl Prediction and Pick

USC vs. Texas A&M

Pat: Texas A&M -3.5

Bryan: Texas A&M -3.5 

These two programs are trending in opposite directions and I certainly trust the defensive-minded head coach with a far superior group of players in the trenches than the offensive-minded one who doesn’t. 

Reed: USC +3.5

Fenway Bowl Prediction and Pick

UConn vs. North Carolina

Pat: North Carolina -3.5

Bryan: North Carolina -3.5

Call it the Belichick bump but you just know that the Tar Heels will be looking to impress their new head coach over the course of the extra bowl practices and in the game itself. 

Reed: UConn +3.5

Pinstripe Bowl Prediction and Pick

Boston College vs. Nebraska

Pat: Boston College +2.5

Bryan: Nebraska -2.5

Cornhusker fans are probably more excited about this game than the players but you just know there’s a ton of pressure on Nebraska to pull out a victory and avoid another losing season. 

Reed: Boston College +2.5

New Mexico Bowl Prediction and Pick

TCU vs. Louisiana

Pat: TCU -12.5

Bryan: Louisiana +12.5

The Ragin’ Cajuns QB situation is up in the air due to injuries but the time off until the game should be in their favor to both heal up and come up with a game plan. TCU is the superior side out of the Big 12 but motivation is going to be lacking for this one and should allow the Sun Belt runners up to keep it close enough to cover.

Reed: TCU -12.5

Pop-Tarts Bowl Prediction and Pick

Iowa State vs. Miami (Florida)

Pat: Miami -3.5

Bryan: Iowa State +3.5

This went from a potential CFP matchup in late November to determining which side will be the one sacrificing a giant pop-tart at midfield. The opt-out situation with the NFL caliber players like Cam Ward will be worth monitoring for the Hurricanes but, in the end, the only thing better for Iowa State than their first 10 win season in school history is their first 11 win campaign. 

Reed: Miami -3.5

Arizona Bowl Prediction and Pick

Colorado State vs. Miami (Ohio)

Pat: Colorado State +2.5

Bryan: Colorado State +2.5

The Rams just missed out on the MWC title game and closed the season very strong in conference play to earn the trip down to the desert. CSU’s run game will prove to be the deciding factor in coming out with the program’s first bowl win in over a decade. 

Reed: Colorado State +2.5

Military Bowl Prediction and Pick

East Carolina vs. North Carolina State

Pat: North Carolina State -5.5

Bryan: North Carolina State -5.5

Reed: East Carolina +5.5

Sometimes, handicapping a bowl game has to do with handicapping motivation. After posting a down season, North Carolina State may have an eye on the offseason as it faces an in-state team that has plenty to play for under a new head coach who earned the job with strong results down the stretch as well as playing a bigger school not too far away. 

Of course, that’s not the only reason to make a bet, but it’s not nothing when bowl season comes around. 

Further, NC State lost Kevin Concepcion, the team’s most talented pass catcher. The Wolfpack offense has been inconsistent all season, mainly behind a shaky offensive line that was outside the top 120 in tackles for loss allowed. 

The ECU defense has been havoc-minded all season and can give Bailey issues in this matchup, 11th in tackles for loss and 23rd in turnovers gained. The team is elite against the run, but shaky against the pass, ranking 23rd in EPA/Rush and outside the top 100 in EPA/Pass. However, the NC State offense has been prone to mistakes, 125th in havoc allowed. 

Meanwhile, the ECU offense has excelled all season with a fast-paced offense and a ton of explosive playmakers. The NC State defense has fallen off this season, ranking outside the top 75 in both yards per play allowed and EPA/Play allowed, and defensive coordinator Tony Gibson has gone to Marshall as the team’s new head coach. 

I believe ECU has the motivation edge, but also plenty of matchup edges to keep this game competitive. 

Alamo Bowl Prediction and Pick

Pat: Colorado -2.5

Bryan: BYU +2.5

Reed: Colorado -2.5

BYU’s record was inflated due to a run of late game success as the team was closer to the national average in terms of actual rating. The Cougars were 41st in net EPA/Play on the season behind the likes of Colorado, who were 22nd in the same metric. 

The Buffaloes offense is elite, rating 22nd in EPA/Pass at a top four rate and BYU may struggle to keep a lid on the opposing passing game as the team ranked a national average 67th in coverage grading, per Pro Football Focus. 

Meanwhile, the Buffaloes defense emerged as one of the better units in the Big 12, paced by a sturdy pass rush and a shutdown secondary that was 12th in EPA/Pass allowed. 

Overall, Colorado is the better team and expected to have it’s host of key players available for this one in the final game of the season. While BYU enjoyed a special season, the team lacks the firepower to keep up with Colorado.

Independence Bowl Prediction and Pick

Army vs. Marshall

Pat: Army -14.5

 No disrespect to Marshall, which has had an excellent season, but this Army team deserves a shot at an accomplished power-conference opponent. One game against Notre Dame isn’t enough to get a full test of the Black Knights’ worth, which is considerable. And now Marshall is in massive transition after a coaching change and portal exodus. The Herd gave up more than 200 rushing yards six times this season and will put a depleted defense on the field against the No. 1 ground game in the country. Like most Army games, this will be blunt-force trauma for the opponent until they can stop it

Bryan: Army -14.5

Reed: Army -14.5

Music City Bowl Prediction and Pick

Missouri vs. Iowa

Pat: Missouri -3.5 

Bryan: Missouri -3.5

Reed: Missouri -3.5

For Missouri, Luther Burden opted out of this game to prepare for the NFL Draft, which is a blow to the Tigers' offense, but not as impactful as Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson, who was sixth in the country in rushing yards this season. 

Johnson was a big part of the Hawkeyes offense that was 93rd in the country in EPA/Pass and 85th in overall success rate. Without the threat of the standout running back on the field, Iowa will rely solely on its defense to stay competitive in this game. 

With that in mind, I’ll lay it with the small favorite in Missouri. 

Reliaquest Bowl Prediction and Pick

Michigan vs. Alabama

Pat: Michigan +10.5

Bryan: Alabama -10.5

Who shows up, literally and figuratively? There could be a torrent of opt-outs for both programs, but those haven’t been declared as of publication. (Michigan monster defensive tackle Mason Graham is entering the draft and probably won’t play, but hasn’t announced his bowl intentions yet.) Alabama could be sulking after just missing the playoff, or could be angry. We won’t know for sure until kickoff. Michigan’s uneasy relationship with the forward pass was survivable against Ohio State, but is not sustainable here.

Reed: Alabama -10.5

Sun Bowl Prediction and Pick

Louisville vs. Washington

Pat: Louisville -2.5

Louisville QB Tyler Shough and top receiver Ja’Corey Brooks have opted out. Washington is going with freshman QB Demond Williams Jr., who showed some sass in the final two games of the regular season. Beyond the personnel crapshoot, we know this: Washington was undefeated in Husky Stadium and winless everywhere else. El Paso is not home.

Bryan: Washington +2.5

Reed: Washington +2.5

Citrus Bowl Prediction and Pick

South Carolina vs. Illinois

Pat: South Carolina -9.5

Bryan: Illinois +9.5

Reed: South Carolina -9.5

The Gamecocks offense should be able to dictate the terms in this game against a poor Fighting Illini rush defense that is bottom three in the country in defensive line yards and 107th in EPA/Rush. 

South Carolina struggled blocking all season, but did post strong rush numbers, and its ability to get a good push against Illinois' defensive line will jumpstart its offense in this one. 

Meanwhile, Illinois’ offensive line won’t have an answer for the Gamecocks front seven that is third in the country in sacks and 17th in havoc. Illinois failed to score double digits against the best defenses on its schedule, Penn State and Oregon, and South Carolina is in that category as well. 

Texas Bowl Prediction and Pick

Baylor vs. LSU

Pat: Baylor +1.5

South Carolina’s competition for hottest team in the nation is Baylor, which has won six in a row by an average of 14.8 points to save Aranda’s job. Redshirt freshman running back Bryson Washington has taken off during the streak, averaging 136 rushing yards per game. LSU’s star offensive tackles, Will Campbell and Emery Jones Jr., have both declared for the draft and Campbell is a confirmed opt-out—Jones may well follow. A bunch more Tigers might opt out. On roster stability alone, this shapes up well for the Bears.

Bryan: LSU -1.5

Reed: Baylor +1.5

College Football Playoff Quarterfinals

Penn State vs. Boise State

Pat: Boise State +9.5

Bryan: Penn State -9.5

When James Franklin has played a team with equal or lesser talent, he tends to win. That's the case in the Fiesta Bowl despite a healthy Ashton Jeanty and a Boise State offense perfectly capable of making Nittany Lions fans nervous for a half. It's just hard to see that Broncos offensive line holding up over the course of the game however, with the likes of Abdul Carter capable of not just taking over the game in spurts, but living in the backfield to make sure every touch Jeanty has is met with a defender behind the line of scrimmage. PSU wasn't as sharp as that final score indicated against SMU, but they've shown enough to keep rolling through this side of the bracket to cover the number.

Reed: Penn State -9.5

College Football Playoff Quarterfinals

Texas vs. Arizona State

Pat: Arizona State +13.5

Bryan: Texas -13.5

Reed: Texas -13.5

While Arizona State may hang around in this one with a strong early game script and a bruising run game, I believe the lack of skill position players outside of Cam Skattebo is going to prove too much to overcome. The team will be without lead receiver Jordyn Tyson and will face the first SEC-level defensive line that can match the strength of Skattebo in the run game.

Meanwhile, ASU's defense may be up against it defending the Texas pass catching group that will give Quinn Ewers plenty of opportunities to pick apart the ASU secondary that is closer to national average and has a bottom five pass rush.

For ASU to stay close, it must continue to play clean football, but I struggle to see the team keeping up in this step up in class.

College Football Playoff Quarterfinals

Ohio State vs. Oregon

Pat: Oregon +1

Bryan: Oregon +1

Reed: Oregon +1

Similar to the meeting in Week 7 that went down to the wire, I expect another barnburner between the Buckeyes and Ducks with Oregon coming out on top.

This game is rightfully lined as a coin flip, but I don't necessarily buy there are still more questions on the Ohio State sideline, including how it handles its patchwork offensive line and if the secondary can truly keep down an explosive Oregon offense.

We've seen the Ducks win shootouts and low scoring rockfights this season, where OSU feels less versatile despite its elite talents at wide receiver.

I'll take the better quarterback in Dillon Gabriel to get over the hump in a coinflip matchup.

College Football Playoff Quarterfinals

Notre Dame vs. Georgia

Pat: Notre Dame +1.5

I'm surprised the Fighting Irish are getting points here, given the injury to Georgia quarterback Carson Beck. This is the weakest rushing team Kirby Smart has had, which is why the Bulldogs are on pace to break the school single-season record for pass attempts. Now a pass-heavy offense is in the hands of Gunner Stockton, who has never started a college game -- and, prior to the SEC championship game, had never played any collegiate snaps with a game on the line. Now Stockton is taking on the nation's No. 1 pass efficiency defense in the Sugar Bowl, one that has recorded 18 interceptions on the season. Given the expectation of a low-scoring, defensive struggle, the season-ending injury to standout Georgia punter Brett Thorson is another reason to favor the Irish.

Bryan: Georgia -1.5

Reed: Georgia -1.5

Gator Bowl Prediction and Pick

Duke vs. Ole Miss

Pat: Ole Miss -14.5

Duke is a happy, overachieving 9–3. Ole Miss is a brooding, slighted 9–3, chafing at its spot outside the playoff. (Or at least Kiffin is.) The Rebels have a massive talent advantage, but we’re still waiting on full opt-out information. While the Blue Devils’ future looks bright with Tulane transfer QB Darian Mensah coming in for 2025, its present for this bowl game took a hit with the departure of starting QB Maalik Murphy. Henry Belin IV will start in his place. Both teams are good at getting after the quarterback, so we’ll see which offensive line holds up better.

Bryan: Duke +14.5

Reed: Ole Miss -14.5

First Responder Bowl Prediction and Pick

Pat: Texas State -9.5

Standout North Texas QB Chandler Morris is in the portal, as is leading receiver DT Sheffield. The Bobcats are on a roll offensively, averaging 49 points over their last three games, and although the UNT defense improved as the season went along, it’s not a good unit. Could be a field day for Texas State QB Jordan McCloud.

Bryan: Texas State -9.5

Reed: North Texas +9.5

Mayo Bowl Prediction and Pick

Virginia Tech vs. Minnesota

Pat: Minnesota -5.5

The Hokies are 0–5 in one-score games, which makes the Gophers’ 3–4 mark in those games look great. Minnesota threw the ball more avidly this season than at any time since 2019, with FCS transfer Max Brosmer playing well over the last seven games. That could be a problem for a Tech secondary that has three starters in the portal. For the Hokies, QB injuries leave that spot unsettled—freshman Pop Watson played well in the bowl-clinching win over Virginia to close the regular season.

Bryan: Minnesota -5.5

Reed: Minnesota -5.5

Bahamas Bowl Prediction and Pick

Buffalo vs. Liberty

Pat: Buffalo +2.5

There is not a lot of middle ground with the Bulls—they either blow out the opponent or get blown out. They’ve played five games decided by 30 or more points, going 2–3. Liberty has several starters in the portal, most notably quarterback Kaidon Salter. Ryan Burger, who has attempted 24 passes in three college seasons, will start in his place. Given the relocation from arctic Buffalo to the Bahamas, the Bulls should be extremely happy to be there.

Bryan: Buffalo +2.5

Reed: Buffalo +2.5

Orange Bowl Prediction and Pick

Notre Dame vs. Penn State

Pat: Notre Dame -1.5

Bryan: Notre Dame -1.5

Reed: Penn State +1.5

This matchup figures to be determined in the trenches with both teams paced by elite defensive line play and a run-first mindset on offense.

However, it’s the counters that have me siding with Penn State in this one.

The Nittany Lions have shown that it can create explosive plays in the passing game with the precise Allar (67% completion percentage with 20 big time throws to seven turnover worthy plays) ranking top 10 in EPA/Pass.

Meanwhile, the Notre Dame passing game is very limited. The team is 48th in EPA/Pass with an explosive pass rate that ranks 120th in the country. The team’s best course of action is to use the quick passing game with the likes of Jordan Faison to create manageable third downs and methodically move down the field.

However, the ND offense may be limited with Jeremiyah Love re-aggravating a knee injury in the Sugar Bowl. While he’s expected to play, he may be limited. A big blow to the team’s most explosive weapon on offense alongside Leonard.

There’s not much separating these two teams, but I believe over the course of 60 minutes, the Nittany Lions have the ability to diversify its attack on both sides of the field to punch its ticket to the National Championship Game.

Cotton Bowl Prediction and Pick

Ohio State vs. Texas

Pat: Ohio State -5.5

Bryan: Ohio State -5.5

Reed: Ohio State -5.5

I'm not stepping in front of this Ohio State freight train in this matchup. The offense is firing on all cylinders and may have too much firepower for the Longhorns defense.

Texas’ secondary has proven to be elite, but the team hasn’t faced many elite passing games this season. Going back through the Longhorns season, the team hasn’t faced a top 20 passing game this season – Georgia is the closest at 22nd – and Ohio State checks in fourth in that metric. There’s a case to be made that OSU is first given some of the overall schematic changes its made in the postseason.

Further, Texas is entering a bit gassed after playing nearly 38 minutes of defense against Arizona State as well as two overtimes. This team will need to be firing on all cylinders to keep up with the Buckeyes, and its fair to question if it truly can keep up.

Meanwhile, the Buckeyes defense did an excellent job of putting bodies in front of Dillon Gabriel as he dropped back, completely stymying the Oregon offense for the first quarter plus as it built a 34-0 lead.

The Buckeyes defense has been an elite one all season, top of the country in many statistics, including the best success rate mark in the nation. The Longhorns have shown that it can take the top off of opposing defenses, but a big issue in this one will be that the team’s run game continues to be shaky.

Ohio State is top five in the country in EPA/Rush, shutting down nearly every run game on its schedule in the run-first Big Ten, and Texas averaged fewer than three yards per carry against Arizona State. A lot of pressure will fall on Ewers to find answers against a Buckeyes secondary that has been nails against the pass, eighth in coverage grading according to Pro Football Focus.

It's a hefty price, but I can only lay it with Ohio State.

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Reed Wallach
REED WALLACH

Reed is a Senior Editor at SI Betting. He grew up in New Jersey and graduated from the University of Wisconsin. His passion lies with the Brooklyn Nets, but is always hunting for an edge.

Bryan Fischer
BRYAN FISCHER

Bryan Fischer is a staff writer at Sports Illustrated covering college sports. He joined the SI staff in October 2024 after spending nearly two decades at outlets such as FOX Sports, NBC Sports and CBS Sports. A member of the Football Writers Association of America's All-America Selection Committee and a Heisman Trophy voter, Fischer has received awards for investigative journalism from the Associated Press Sports Editors and FWAA. He has a bachelor's in communication from USC.

Pat Forde
PAT FORDE

Pat Forde is a senior writer for Sports Illustrated who covers college football and college basketball as well as the Olympics and horse racing. He cohosts the College Football Enquirer podcast and is a football analyst on the Big Ten Network. He previously worked for Yahoo Sports, ESPN and The (Louisville) Courier-Journal. Forde has won 28 Associated Press Sports Editors writing contest awards, has been published three times in the Best American Sports Writing book series, and was nominated for the 1990 Pulitzer Prize. A past president of the U.S. Basketball Writers Association and member of the Football Writers Association of America, he lives in Louisville with his wife. They have three children, all of whom were collegiate swimmers.