Bet on Sam Darnold to Win NFL MVP

Iain MacMillan | Oct 8, 2025

Sam Darnold is off to a hot start to the beginning of his 2025 NFL season. / Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

We're five weeks through the 2025 NFL season, which is the perfect time to take a look at the awards market and see if we can find some value on a bet or two.

The market I'm looking at is the odds to win NFL MVP at FanDuel Sportsbook. As of writing this article, Josh Allen is the +135 favorite to win the award for the second straight season, followed by Patrick Mahomes at +470 and Baker Mayfield at +950. Despite that, I'd argue the race for this award is still wide open and there's a chance for a player far down the odds list to make a run at this thing.

The player that sticks out to me the most is the quarterback for the Seattle Seahawks, Sam Darnold, at +5000.

Sam Darnold is +5000 @FDSportsbook to win NFL MVP and @IainMacBets put a little sprinkle bet on him based on the numbers. pic.twitter.com/UTMlHtFZqX

— SI Betting (@SI_Betting) October 8, 2025

Now, before you tear into me in my Twitter replies, let me make the case for why he's worth a bet at his current odds. The best way to do that is to take a look at my favorite graph that evaluates how quarterbacks have played this season, per rbsdm.com.

Sam Darnold leads the NFL in two significant QB stats. / RBSDM.com

Darnold leads all quarterbacks in the league in two big metrics: adjusted points added and completion percentage over expected. Before you think that those metrics mean little, look at the quarterbacks who are right behind him in those stats; some of the best the NFL has to offer.

The biggest argument against Darnold right now is that the Seahawks don't throw the ball enough. He's averaging the most yards per pass attempt at 9.3, but is 11th in yards per game at 249.2 due to Seattle's commitment to the run. With that being said, if the Seahawks begin to trust their quarterback, Darnold will be given the chance to truly shine.

Should he be favored to win the NFL MVP? Absolutely not, we need to see more from him to be sure he can sustain this level of play for the entire season. Is he worth a bet at 50-1 based on his early numbers? Undoubtedly.

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