Betting Vegas: Public Gives Up on Chiefs, Sharps on Patriots vs. Bills

Gilberto Manzano | 1 Hour Ago

There's some sharp money on Bills-Patriots in Week 15. / Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

It’s been one of the strangest NFL seasons in recent memory, so it’s only right that bettors are now fading the Chiefs and Lions. 

There’s been plenty of anti-Chiefs money for Sunday’s home matchup against the Chargers, according to Joey Feazel, the head of football trading at Caesars Sportsbook. Despite Kansas City’s failures this season, the Chiefs, at least, still have the respect of the oddsmarks, as the three-time defending AFC champions are laying 4.5 points vs. Los Angeles. 

“We’ve seen a flood of anti-Chiefs money, which is really the first time I’ve seen that in quite some time,” Feazel says. “Seeing a lot of Chargers money.”

Kansas City has the respect of the oddsmakers because Justin Herbert and his one good hand has to go into a hostile environment to face a stout Chiefs’ defense that kept Patrick Mahomes in the game last week against the Texans. The Chargers struggled to score points against the Eagles on Monday night and were bailed out by the defense picking off Jalen Hurts four times. 

Still, I would fade the Chiefs or avoid this game altogether. The 6–7 Chiefs might have mentally checked out due to fatigue from three consecutive trips to the Super Bowl and their offensive line has been decimated by injuries. 

It’s somewhat surprising that it took NFL bettors this long to give up on the Chiefs. Last week, Kansas City saw a lot of action despite laying 3.5 points against the red-hot Texans and their elite defense, which feasted on the banged-up offensive line. I guess it’s better late than never.

“Still a lot of Chiefs money coming into that spot last week, especially in a prime-time spot,” Feazel says. “That’s usually when they’re all over the Chiefs, and in years past, the Chiefs have been good to them in those spots. I think that’s what drives the public in betting prime-time Chiefs because that’s usually where they thrive.” 

The betting public has given up on the Lions for a few weeks now. Feazel said it was strange needing the Lions to come through for the book last week against the Cowboys. Detroit easily handled Dallas, but that was not enough for bettors to forget about the other times coach Dan Campbell and his team burned them this season. Most of the money has been on the Rams, who are 5.5-point home favorites vs. the Lions for the NFL Week 15 showdown. 

“In the past couple of weeks, we really haven’t seen the Lions action that we’ve seen [before],” Feazel says. “We’ve seen it occasionally. On Thanksgiving, they were kind of all over the Lions against the Packers, but last Thursday, we saw something that was really [different], we needed the Lions in a game against the Cowboys. 

“I think this is less of a disrespect toward the Lions and more of just respect toward this Rams team and how talented this Rams team can be. We opened this line at Rams -4.5 and now we’re sitting at Rams -5.5.”

With more insight from Feazel, here’s everything you need to know betting wise about NFL Week 15. 

Sharps vs. Public NFL Week 15

Speaking of respect, the Patriots don’t have it this week against the Bills, a team they’ve already beaten on the road during their 10-game winning streak. 

The public is backing Buffalo, a 1.5-point road favorite, while the sharps are on Drake Maye’s Patriots. 

“We’ve seen mostly Bills money,” Feazel says. “We haven’t seen much Patriots money come in, except from some of our sharper guys.”

This line has shifted a few times and could end as a pick’em before kick off, but Feazel is anticipating a closing line of New England -1. 

With the public still on the Cowboys, the sharps have thrown money on the Vikings, who went from a 6.5-point road favorite to now getting spotted 5.5 points as of Thursday morning. 

“We know we’re not going to need the Cowboys for this one,” Feazel says.

Odds Movement NFL Week 15

Last week on the early betting line, the Seahawks were only laying 3.5 points for Sunday’s home game against the Colts and Daniel Jones, who later sustained a season-ending Achilles injury in the blowout loss vs. the Jaguars. Hours after Jones’s devastating injury, the line reopened with Seattle as 10.5-point favorites vs. Indianapolis, which quickly went to -13.5 points on Sunday night.

All this occurred before the news broke of a 44-year-old Philip Rivers having a Tuesday workout with the Colts. The line moved a bit after Rivers officially joined the Colts’ practice squad to end a five-year retirement, with some sportsbooks having Seattle -14.

Most of the money has been on the Seahawks, but Feazel mentioned there could be some sharp action on the Colts if the betting line goes over two touchdowns come kick off. 

But don’t count on odds movement from the intriguing Packers vs. Broncos showdown at Mile High. The betting line has held steady at Green Bay -2.5, with sharp and public money on the Packers.

“We’re going to need the Broncos, but we do expect some sharp action on the Packers,” Feazel says. “I don’t expect to see it at 3.”

Biggest Liability NFL Week 15 

Feazel is going to have to sweat on the possibility of the over hitting on the gigantic total line of 55.5 for Rams vs. Lions. 

“With those two offenses, we’ve already seen the line jump from 53.5 to 55.5,” Feazel says. “That’s one of the highest totals we’ve seen all year long.”

In recent weeks, the over hit on Cowboys-Lions (55.5), Bengals-Bills (54.5) and Chiefs-Cowboys (53.5).

Manzano’s NFL Week 15 Betting Tips

*Betting lines from DraftKings Sportsbook 

Buck the trend: Lions (+5.5) at Rams

Unlike public bettors, I’m not ready to give up on the Lions’ explosive offense. This unit is good enough to expose the Rams’ weak back end of the defense. 

It was just two weeks ago that Bryce Young and his Carolina receivers carved up this L.A. secondary. 

Enticing Bet: Packers (-2.5) at Broncos

The Packers might be the best team in the NFL after beating the Lions and Bears in back-to-back weeks. Jordan Love has been on fire and Green Bay’s defense is just as good as Denver’s. 

Moneyline Dog: Bengals (+114) vs. Ravens

I’m going to side with an angry Joe Burrow, who let one get away last week in Buffalo after two fourth-quarter interceptions. There’s too much finger pointing and complaining over officials in Baltimore right now. 

SuperDog: Vikings (+5.5) at Cowboys 

I’m going to trust the sharps on this one because I’m not fully convinced Vikings second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy has fully turned a corner after having success vs. Washington’s atrocious defense last week. But I like the number here and that’s enough in sports betting.  

Not So Risky: Patriots (+1.5) vs. Bills

The Patriots have earned my respect. They have a more complete team over their rivals, who have a shaky defense. 

Stay Away: Chargers (+4.5) at Chiefs

I’m done with the Chiefs, but it’s hard to trust Herbert with one good hand. He struggled to connect with his wide receivers in the win over the Eagles. 

Parlay: Browns (+7.5) at Bears; Colts (+14) at Seahawks; Steelers (-3) vs. Dolphins

I’ll take Shedeur Sanders to keep it close vs. Chicago. Give me Rivers to not get totally blown out against the Seahawks’ dominant defense. And I’m expecting the Steelers to cruise against the Dolphins at home. 

Favorite Fave: Texans (-9.5) vs. Cardinals 

Cardinals coach Jonathan Gannon might get fired after this game against the Texans’ elite defense. 

Best Over/Under Total: Bills-Patriots (over 50.5, -110) 

The under bets have burned me in recent weeks. It’s time for change. Light up the scoreboard, Maye and Josh Allen. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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