Bettor Places Gigantic $1.3 Million Wager on Chiefs vs. Bills in AFC Championship Game

Brian Giuffra | Jan 21, 2025

One whale bettor is backing Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes to beat the Bills in the AFC Championship. / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

We only have three games left in the NFL season and one bettor doesn’t want to leave anything on the table. They’re shelling out over $1 million on Chiefs vs Bills in the AFC Championship and backing the two-time defending champions to advance to their third straight Super Bowl 

Bills vs Chiefs Odds AFC Championship 

Via Caesars Sportsbook 

Moneyline 

• Chiefs -135
• Bills +115

Spread 

• Chiefs -2.0 (-110)
• Bills +2.0 (-110) 

The Chiefs, who are hosting Buffalo at 6:30 P.M. on Sunday with a spot on the Super Bowl on the line, are currently -135 at Caesars Sportsbook to beat the Bills outright (aka the moneyline). When the line opened, Caesars had the Chiefs as 1-point favorites and -115 on the moneyline. 

One of the reasons for that change was a massive bet being placed on Kansas City. 

Caesars announced a bettor wagered $1.3 million on the Chiefs moneyline yesterday. They got odds of -130, which means they would profit $1 million if the Chiefs win with a total payout of $2.3 million. 

That’s the biggest public bet on this game by far. 

The Chiefs and Bills have met three times in the last four playoffs with the Chiefs winning all three. Kansas City beat Buffalo, 27-24, in last year’s AFC divisional round and also beat them, 42-36, in the 2022 divisional round and 38-24 in the  2021 AFC Championship. This season, the Bills beat the Chiefs 30-21 in Week 11 in Buffalo.

This bettor is certainly hoping for a different result with the Chiefs at home. 

Kansas City has won the last two Super Bowls and is trying to become the first team in NFL history to win three straight. While their offense isn’t as explosive as in previous seasons (22.7 points per game, 15th in the NFL), their defense has been dominant, giving up just 18.9 points per game (third-best in the NFL) and only 2.1 TDs per game (fourth). 

The Bills counter with one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL. They scored 30.7 PPG in the regular season (second in the NFL) and scored TDs on 68.4% of their red zone trips (second).  

Bills QB Josh Allen has done plenty of damage against the Chiefs in the playoffs, averaging 267.3 passing yards per game with seven passing TDs and one INT in three games. He also averages 76 rushing yards per game and has two rushing TDs against them in the playoffs. 

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is just as potent against the Bills in the playoffs, averaging 306.0 passing yards with eight passing TDs and 0 INTs in three games. He also averages 31 rushing yards per game against the Bills in the playoffs with one rushing TD. 

The odds are moving in the Chiefs direction currently. This million-dollar bet certainly plays a role in that at Caesars. We’ll see if anyone else is confident enough to shell out seven figures on either team and how that impacts the odds.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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