Bills vs. Chiefs Odds Movement: Spread Shifts Majorly at Caesars Sportsbook

The Kansas City Chiefs-Bills Buffalo odds have moved a whole point since they opened on Sunday night.

The Chiefs are now favored by two points against the Buffalo Bills in the AFC title game. / Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

The AFC title game is still a few days away between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills, but the odds are already moving.

After opening as a one or 1.5-point favorite at home at most books, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have moved to two-point favorites at Caesars Sportsbook. For some, that’s a move of a full point in favor of the two-time defending champs ahead of their date with Josh Allen and the AFC East champion Bills. 

Bills vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread and Total for AFC Title Game

Spread

• Bills +2 (-110)
• Chiefs -2 (-110)

Moneyline

• Bills: +115
• Chiefs: -135

Total

• 47.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Originally, Caesars had opened the Bills as one-point underdogs, so this is a pretty major move early in the week. 

Who is winning the AFC Championship Game? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/bder6kuAwS

— Caesars Sportsbook & Casino (@CaesarsSports) January 20, 2025

One reason for the move may be due to a massive bet that was placed on Kansas City – at Caesars – to win the AFC title game. On Monday, Caesars announced a bettor wagered $1.3 million on the Chiefs moneyline – easily the biggest public bet so far on this matchup. 

That certainly can influence the betting lines if the sportsbook is taking major action on the Chiefs and not nearly as much on Buffalo. 

Kansas City has fared well against Buffalo in the playoffs, winning each of the last three matchups in the Mahomes-Allen era. Kansas City beat Buffalo, 27-24, in last year’s AFC divisional round and also beat Allen and company two other times – 42-36 in the 2022 divisional round and 38-24 in the  2021 AFC Championship. 

These teams did meet during the regular season in the 2024 campaign with Allen and Buffalo pulling out a 30-21 victory at home. However, this matchup will be played in Kansas City, which is a bad sign for Allen. 

The Bills quarterback is 0-3 straight up in his playoff career as a road underdog. 

For bettors, it’s worth monitoring this line as the week progresses. There’s a chance that bettors will be able to get a more favorable line on the Bills – due to the major moneyline bet – at Caesars. For example, at DraftKings, Buffalo is still a 1.5-point underdog and just +105 on the moneyline.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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