Bills vs. Falcons Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 6

Iain MacMillan | Oct 8, 2025

The Bills are road favorites against the Falcons in Week 6 of the NFL season. / Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

The Buffalo Bills are coming off an upset loss against the New England Patriots on Sunday Night Football. They'll play in their second straight prime time showdown when they head to Atlanta to take on the Falcons in a Week 6 edition of Monday Night Football.

The Falcons are coming off a BYE, hoping to walk away from the game with a winning record for the first time this season.

Let's dive into everything you need to know to bet this prime time matchup.

Bills vs. Falcons Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

• Bills -4.5 (-115)
• Falcons +4.5 (-105)

Moneyline

• Bills -225
• Falcons +188

Total

• OVER 49.5 (-115)
• UNDER 49.5 (-105)

Bills vs. Falcons How to Watch

• Date: Monday, Oct. 13
• Game Time: 7:15 pm ET
• Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Bills Record: 4-1
• Falcons Record: 2-2

Bills vs. Falcons Betting Trends

• The OVER is 5-2 in the Bills' last seven games
• The OVER is 5-1 in the Bills' last six road games
• Bills are 6-1 straight up in their last seven games vs. NFC opponents
• Falcons are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games
• The UNDER is 9-4 in the Falcons' last 13 games

Bills vs. Falcons Injury Reports

Bills Injury Report

• Dorian Williams, LB - Questionable
• T.J. Sanders, DT - Questionable
• Ed Oliver, DT - Questionable
• Matt Milano, LB - Questionable
• Dorian Strong, CB - IR

Falcons Injury Report

• Tyrone Wheatley Jr., OT - IR
• Ta'Quon Graham, DT - IR-R
• KhaDarel Hodge, WR - Questionable
• Nathan Carter, RB - Questionable
• A.J. Terrell Jr., CB - Questionable

Bills vs. Falcons Key Player to Watch

• Michael Penix Jr., QB - Atlanta Falcons

It's been a rollercoaster start to the season for Michael Penix Jr. He's had a couple of solid starts, one horrific start, and then one fantastic start. If the Falcons want to pull off the upset on Monday Night Football, they need the version of Penix Jr. that threw for 313 yards and two touchdowns against the Washington Commanders.

Bills vs. Falcons Prediction and Pick

In this week's edition of the Road to 272 Bets, I broke down why I'm taking the points with the Falcons in this interconference prime time showdown:

The Buffalo Bills were exposed on Sunday Night Football. They are an elite offense that has plenty of issues on defense. Now, they have to take on a Falcons team that's coming off a BYE that has looked extremely strong defensively to start the season. The Falcons lead the NFL in Defensive DVOA, and overall, they're fifth in the league in Net Yards per Play at +0.8. Meanwhile, the Bills are 22nd in Defensive DVOA and are ninth in Net Yards per Play at +0.7.

The biggest question mark in this game is which version of Michael Penix Jr. will show up in this game, but I'm banking on his preparation being locked in after a week off. Atlanta may not win, but I'll take the 4.5 points with the Falcons on their home field on Monday Night Football.

Pick: Bills -4.5 (-115) via FanDuel

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