Blue Jays vs. Mariners Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for ALCS Game 4

The Mariners look to bounce back in Game 4 of the ALCS against Max Scherzer and the Blue Jays.

The Seattle Mariners look to bounce back in Game 4. / Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

The Toronto Blue Jays got on the board in a big way in Game 3, taking down the Seattle Mariners 13-4 behind the strength of five home runs.

Seattle has a good chance to bounce back on Thursday night, though, with Luis Castillo taking the hill against Max Scherzer.

Can the Mariners take a 3-1 series lead on Thursday night?

Here are the odds, probable pitchers, and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Mariners on Thursday night.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Blue Jays +1.5 (-204)
• Mariners -1.5 (+164)

Moneyline

• Blue Jays +105
• Mariners -127

Total

• 7.5 (Over -105/Under -116)

Blue Jays vs. Mariners Probable Pitchers

• Blue Jays: Max Scherzer (5-5, 5.19 ERA in regular season)
• Mariners: Luis Castillo (1-0, 0.00 ERA in postseason; 11-8, 3.54 ERA in regular season)

Blue Jays vs. Mariners How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, October 16
• Time: 8:33 p.m. ET
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• How to Watch (TV): FS1
• Mariners record: 90-72 (2-1)
• Blue Jays record: 87-75 (1-2)

Blue Jays vs. Mariners Best MLB Prop Bets

Blue Jays Best MLB Prop Bet

• Max Scherzer OVER 3.5 Hits Allowed (+137)

It’s a full-on fade of Max Scherzer on Thursday night. The Blue Jays don’t have many other options, leading to the veteran righthander getting the nod in Game 4.

Scherzer allowed 87 hits in 85 innings across 17 starts this season. It was the first time since the shortened 2020 season that the starter had more hits allowed than innings pitched.

He finished the season particularly poorly, allowing 17 hits in just 5.2 innings in his final two starts. Scherzer allowed at least four hits in 13 of his 17 starts this season, including five of seven on the road. 

The Blue Jays are counting on Scherzer to get through at least three or four innings on Thursday night, and the Mariners should be able to jump on him for a handful of hits at home. It’s worth taking at this +137 price, at least.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners Prediction and Pick

I broke down my best bet for this game in SI Betting’s daily column, Walk-Off Wagers:

As soon as the Blue Jays named Max Scherzer the starter for Game 4, I knew I’d be hammering the Mariners at home on Thursday night. Scherzer simply isn’t what he once was, and Toronto will hope for a throwback performance in the ALCS.

But it’s not as easy as flipping a switch.

Scherzer was left off the ALDS roster after seeing his ERA balloon from 3.60 after his August 19 start in Pittsburgh to 5.19 after his last start of the season. He allowed 25 ER in as many innings in those final six starts, allowing at least four runs in five of those games.

The veteran righthander was horrid on the road this season, allowing 23 ER in 35 IP for a 5.91 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.

Mariners starter Luis Castillo has yet to allow a run in the postseason through six innings. He threw 4.2 innings of one-hit ball against the Tigers, then got four outs in the 15-inning victory. He only allowed one hit in total, but did walk four in his first start.

Castillo has now had a full five days off since throwing 15 pitches in that one, and he was tremendous at home this season with just 29 ER in 100.1 IP (2.60 ERA). 

I’ll take the Mariners’ bats to wake back up against Scherzer to take a 3-1 series lead at home.

Pick: Mariners (-127)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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