Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Brewers-Dodgers, Blue Jays-Mariners)

Breaking down the best bets on the diamond for NLCS Game 3 and ALCS Game 4.

Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Max Scherzer gets the start in Game 4 of the ALCS. / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

There are two crucial games on the docket on Thursday night in the MLB playoffs.

The Los Angeles Dodgers turn to Tyler Glasnow as they look to take a commanding 3-0 NLCS lead over the Milwaukee Brewers at home. After that, the Seattle Mariners hope to bounce back from their blowout loss in Game 3 to the Toronto Blue Jays.

My best bets for today are targeting Glasnow against a cold Brewers offense and the Mariners to bounce back at home.

Let’s get right into the best bets – and their odds at the best betting sites – for Thursday, Oct. 16.

MLB Best Bets for Thursday, Oct. 16

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Tyler Glasnow OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-146) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
• Seattle Mariners (-127) vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Tyler Glasnow OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-146) vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee has not been able to brew up much in the NLCS against the Dodgers. Blake Snell threw eight one-hit innings in Game 1, striking out 10 and walking none, and Yoshinoby Yamamoto followed that up with a three-hit, one-run complete game with seven strikeouts and just one walk.

Glasnow takes the hill for the Dodgers at home, and he should be able to keep the Brewers’ bats off balance in an afternoon start. He racked up eight strikeouts in six scoreless innings against the Phillies in Game 4, and had two strikeouts in 1.2 innings in Game 1 of that series.

The righthander has enjoyed pitching at Dodger Stadium this season. He allowed 19 ER with 80 Ks in 61.2 IP (2.77 ERA, 11.7 K/9) this season, with at least six punchouts in 10 of those starts.

Finally, Glasnow had 11 strikeouts in as many innings against Milwaukee this season, and this Brewers team has 26 strikeouts against him in 71 at-bats, according to ESPN’s batter vs. pitcher stats.

Seattle Mariners (-127) vs. Toronto Blue Jays

As soon as the Blue Jays named Max Scherzer the starter for Game 4, I knew I’d be hammering the Mariners at home on Thursday night. Scherzer simply isn’t what he once was, and Toronto will hope for a throwback performance in the ALCS.

But it’s not as easy as flipping a switch.

Scherzer was left off the ALDS roster after seeing his ERA balloon from 3.60 after his August 19 start in Pittsburgh to 5.19 after his last start of the season. He allowed 25 ER in as many innings in those final six starts, allowing at least four runs in five of those games.

The veteran righthander was horrid on the road this season, allowing 23 ER in 35 IP for a 5.91 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.

Mariners starter Luis Castillo has yet to allow a run in the postseason through six innings. He threw 4.2 innings of one-hit ball against the Tigers, then got four outs in the 15-inning victory. He only allowed one hit in total, but did walk four in his first start.

Castillo has now had a full five days off since throwing 15 pitches in that one, and he was tremendous at home this season with just 29 ER in 100.1 IP (2.60 ERA). 

I’ll take the Mariners’ bats to wake back up against Scherzer to take a 3-1 series lead at home.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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