Boise State vs. South Florida Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 1

Sean Treppedi | Aug 25, 2025

Byrum Brown’s return from injury is the X-factor for USF, as his dual-threat ability could spark the Bulls’ upset bid if he can handle Boise State’s retooled front seven. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

The curtain rises on Boise State’s season with a tricky Thursday night trip to Raymond James Stadium, where South Florida has quietly been one of the AAC’s most entertaining teams. 

The Broncos, fresh off a 12-win campaign, have to adjust to life without Ashton Jeanty but still carry the steadiness of veteran quarterback Maddux Madsen. 

USF, meanwhile, is banking on a healthy Byrum Brown to reignite the spark that made him the program’s first 3,000-yard passer before his injury-riddled 2024. 

With two explosive offenses and suspect defenses, the opener feels primed for a test of who blinks first.

Boise State vs. South Florida Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Spread

• Stanford -6.5 (-110)
• Hawaii +6.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Boise State (+105)
• South Florida (-126)

Total

• Over 63.5 (-110)
• Under 63.5 (-110)

Boise State vs. South Florida How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, August 28, 2025 
• Game Time: 5:30 p.m. ET
• Venue: Raymond James Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): CBS
• Boise State Record: 0-0
• South Florida Record: 0-0

Boise State vs. South Florida Key Player to Watch

Byrum Brown, Quarterback – South Florida

Brown is both the hinge and heartbeat of South Florida’s upset hopes. Two years ago, he rewrote the program record book with over 3,000 passing yards while adding another dimension as a runner, but his 2024 campaign was derailed by a significant leg injury. Now, he returns against a Boise State defense that was rebuilt through the portal, giving him a stage to prove he’s fully back to form.

If Brown can stretch the field vertically while keeping Boise’s linebackers honest with his mobility, USF’s tempo-heavy offense will look much more dangerous. The question is just whether he can stay upright against a Broncos front seven that added muscle specifically to improve on last year’s uneven pass rush. 

Boise State vs. South Florida Prediction and Pick

Boise State enters with more complete balance, and that matters when laying a touchdown on the road. Madsen’s consistency — a 3,018-yard, 23-touchdown passer last fall — gives the Broncos a steady hand against a USF defense that ranked 119th nationally a year ago. Even without Jeanty, the two-back committee of Sire Gaines and Malik Sherrod is capable of grinding out yards behind what may be the Mountain West’s best offensive line.

Boise’s defense, which returns key tacklers and infused its secondary with transfer help, looks well positioned to prevent the kind of big-play breakdowns that USF thrives on. 

South Florida’s offensive ceiling is undeniable with Brown healthy, but the Bulls’ inability to stop anyone last season — and their reliance on rhythm early — makes them vulnerable if Boise takes control in the trenches. Expect a competitive first half, but Boise State’s depth and defensive edge should allow them to stretch the margin late. 

Pick: Boise State -6.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

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