Braves vs. Phillies Game 1 Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Thursday, May 29

Sean Treppedi | May 29, 2025

AJ Smith-Shawver has had command issues this season, which is why we're targeting his walks prop against the Phillies on Thursday. / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Wednesday's game between the Phillies and Braves was postponed due to inclement weather and rescheduled as part of a twin bill to close out their three-game series on Thursday, May 29, at Citizens Bank Park.

The Phillies will start left-hander Cristopher Sánchez (4-1, 3.17 ERA) in the matinee game, who has allowed three runs or fewer in nine of his ten starts this season. He'll face Braves right-hander AJ Smith-Shawver (3-2, 3.67 ERA), looking to rebound after allowing seven runs in three innings in his last outing. 

Philadelphia leads the National League East with a 35-19 record, having won 10 of its last 11 games. The Braves, at 25-28, aim to close the gap in the division standings. Bryce Harper's status remains uncertain after being hit by a pitch on Tuesday; he was diagnosed with a right elbow contusion, and an update is expected before Thursday's games.

Let’s get down to business with a player prop and game prediction for the afternoon.

Braves vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Braves +1.5 (-156)
• Phillies -1.5  (+130)

Moneyline

• Braves (+130)
• Phillies (-154)

Total

• Over 8.5 (-102)
• Under 8.5 (-120)

Braves vs. Phillies Probable Pitchers

• Braves: AJ Smith-Shawver (3-2, 3.67 ERA)
• Phillies: Christopher Sanchez (4-1, 3.17 ERA)

Braves vs. Phillies How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, May 29, 2025
• Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• How to Watch (TV): NBCSCP, FDSN South
• Braves Record: 25-28
• Phillies Record: 35-19

Braves vs. Phillies Best MLB Prop Bet

• AJ Smith-Shawver Over 2.5 Walks Allowed (+115 at FanDuel)

SI’s Peter Dewey advised to go Over on Smith-Shawver’s walk prop in his Thursday best bets column, which is a play I endorse. Dewey references his 20 total walks in eight starts, which has pushed his walk rate into the 25 percentile this season. Take the plus-money value on the Phillies to take advantage of Smith-Shawver’s command issues Thursday.

Braves vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

I’m sticking with my handicap of this game from yesterday, even with Sanchez on the hill instead of Wheeler. Phillies pitching leads the majors in strikeouts and there’s a lot to love about Sanchez's stuff right now. He’s striking out 10.8 hitters per nine frames, limiting hard contact and inducing tons of ground balls. Whether Bryce Harper plays or not, I favor the Phillies offense against Smith-Shawver’s profile in the bottom percentile of Statcast's advanced contact metrics.

As I had mentioned in Wednesday's write-up. Smith-Shawver is due for regression at a 5.57 xERA while the Braves offense isn’t providing enough run support to trust them against a top-tier Phillies lineup; it is producing a .246/.318/.387 slash line. 

Pick:  Phillies -1.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

---

Create a new FanDuel Sportsbook account, and you can get $200 in bonus bets if you win your first $5 wager. Download the FanDuel app and deposit a minimum of $5 to claim your new-user bonus today.

If you’re located in AZ, CO, KS, NC, or TN, you can bet $5 and get a $200 bonus regardless of the outcome of your initial wager.

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.