Brazil vs. USA Olympic Basketball Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Olympic Basketball Quarterfinals

Reed Wallach | Aug 5, 2024

Aug 3, 2024; Villeneuve-d'Ascq, France; United States guard LeBron James (6) passes during the first quarter against Puerto Rico during the Paris 2024 Olympic Summer Games at Stade Pierre-Mauroy. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports / John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

The run for the gold medal continues for the United States, who begin the knockout stages of the 2024 Olympic basketball games against Brazil laying nearly four touchdowns. 

The US is predictably the biggest favorite in the quarterfinals against Brazil, who has been paced by an elite defense that will look to slow down the juggernaut United States. While the Brazilians would qualify as one of the biggest upsets in sports history, the expectation is that the Americans roll into the semifinals. 

With such a big point spread, is there betting value in this one? Here’s our full betting preview: 

Brazil vs. United States Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Brazil: +26.5 (-104)
• United States: -26.5 (-114)

Moneyline

• Brazil: +3500
• United States: -50000

Total: 185.5 (Over -114/Under -106)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Brazil vs. United States How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, August 6th
• Game Time: 3:30 PM EST
• Venue: Accor Arena
• How to Watch (TV): Peacock

Brazil vs. United States Key Players to Watch

Brazil

Bruno Cabocolo: Cabocolo has been a bright spot in the Olympics, fresh off a 33-point effort against Japan in the Brazilian's lone group stage win where the team scored 102 points. Cabocolo will be needed against the array of US wings, will he be able to have enough energy to contribute on offense?

United States

LeBron James: It’s been a comprehensive Olympics for James, who has scored 14 points, grabbed nearly seven rebounds, and dished out seven assists on average in the group stages. James is playing point forward for the Americans in the starting lineup as the team has looked the part of one of the most dominant teams to play in the Olympics. 

Brazil vs. United States Prediction and Pick

Brazil struggled when playing its two top teams in the group, losing to France by 12 and Germany by 13 while scoring fewer than 74 points in each game. Now, against a United States team that has had little issue disposing of the teams in its group thus far, I expect the Americans to cruise rather easily. 

However, can the US cover this point spread? 

Brazil has proven it can be competitive for most of the games, keeping it to a few buckets against France in the opening game of the tournament with elite ball pressure and length on the perimeter. The United States has been winning with ease but not covering point spreads at a high clip, failing to cover in its second and third games in the group stages. 

Are bettors paying too high of a tax on the loaded American team? Quite possibly. The Americans have had lapses in energy at times that have let the opponent claw back into the game, and a high-energy transition-focused Brazil team can keep up its level to stay within this massive point spread. 

Style points haven’t been part of the formula for the United States, I’ll grab the points. 

PICK: Brazil +26.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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