Brewers vs. Guardians Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Monday, May 12

The Brewers are road favorites with Freddy Peralta on the mound.

Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Freddy Peralta is a great prop target on Monday. / Michael McLoone-Imagn Images

The Milwaukee Brewers hit the road on Monday night to open their series with the Cleveland Guardians, who lost on Sunday Night Baseball to the Philadelphia Phillies.

Oddsmakers have the Brewers favored on the road in this matchup, as ace Freddy Peralta is on the mound for Milwaukee. This season, Peralta has a 2.18 ERA in eight outings.

The Guardians will counter with Ben Lively (3.46 ERA), who has gotten off to a solid start in 2025 as well. 

Cleveland has a much better record this season, but can it knock off Peralta, who has allowed three or fewer runs in every one of his starts? 

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my game prediction for Monday’s series opener. 

Brewers vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Brewers -1.5 (+130)
• Guardians +1.5 (-155)

Moneyline

• Brewers: -130
• Guardians: +110

Total

• 8.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Brewers vs. Guardians Probable Pitchers

• Milwaukee: Freddy Peralta (4-2, 2.18 ERA)
• Cleveland: Ben Lively (2-2, 3.46 ERA)

Brewers vs. Guardians How to Watch

• Date: Monday, May 12
• Time: 6:10 p.m. EST
• Venue: Progressive Field
• How to Watch (TV): CLEG, FDSWI
• Brewers record: 20-21
• Guardians record: 23-17

Brewers vs. Guardians Best MLB Prop Bets

Brewers Best MLB Prop Bet

• Freddy Peralta OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-115)

This season, Peralta has been great at generating strikeouts, ranking in the 74th percentile in strikeout percentage, 85th percentile in whiff percentage, and 77th percentile in chase rate, per Statcast.

On Monday, he’s set at just 5.5 K’s – a number he has cleared in five of his eight games this season – against a Cleveland team that is averaging 8.21 K’s per game at home.

Since Peralta has averaged at least 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings in every season in his MLB career, I think he’s worth a look in this market on Monday. 

Brewers vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s MLB Best Bets column – Walk-Off Wagers – why I’m targeting the total in this matchup: 

Monday’s pitching matchup between the Milwaukee Brewers and Cleveland Guardians is a good one, as Freddy Peralta (4-2, 2.18 ERA) gets the ball for the Brew Crew against Cleveland’s Ben Lively (2-2, 3.46 ERA).

This season, Peralta has allowed three or fewer runs in each of his eight outings, and the Brewers have combined for more than eight runs in just one of those games. Milwaukee is already one of the best UNDER teams in MLB (23-15-3), and it certainly shows when the team’s ace takes the bump.

While Lively hasn’t been as lights out as Peralta, he still has five outings where he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs and has not given up more than four runs in any start. Lively has been great in May, allowing just seven hits and one earned run across 11.0 innings of work.

The Guardians and Brewers are both below average offenses this season as well. Just take a look at how the rank in a few key categories: 

OPS

• Brewers: 24th
• Guardians: 18th

Runs Scored

• Brewers: 13th
• Guardians: 17th

Batting Average

• Brewers: 23rd
• Guardians: 22nd

If both starters continue their hot starts to 2025, I think this game falls short of eight runs with ease on Monday. 

Pick: UNDER 8.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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