Brewers vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Wednesday, Sept. 24

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Milwaukee Brewers-San Diego Padres matchup on Sept. 24.

San Diego Padres starting pitcher Dylan Cease is a solid prop target on Wednesday. / Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

Dylan Cease and the San Diego Padres are just 1.5 games out of the top spot in the NL West, and they’re looking to hand the Milwaukee Brewers a sweep on Wednesday afternoon.

Milwaukee has already won the NL Central division, and it’s on cruise control to finish out the regular season as it aims to set its rotation for the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Padres have clinched a playoff spot, but they could still win the division if they outplay the Los Angeles Dodgers over the final few games of the regular season. 

On Wednesday, Cease (4.64 ERA) is on the mound against Milwaukee’s Chad Patrick, who has worked as both a starter and a reliever this month. Patrick has led the Brew Crew to just a 8-17 record in his 25 appearances in 2025. 

Oddsmakers have set the Padres as slight favorites at home, but can they pull off the sweep?

Here’s a look at the latest odds, my favorite prop bet and a prediction for Wednesday’s series finale. 

Brewers vs. Padres Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Brewers +1.5 (-194)
• Padres -1.5 (+158)

Moneyline

• Brewers: -101
• Padres: -121

Total

• 8 (Over -105/Under -115)

Brewers vs. Padres Probable Pitchers

• Milwaukee: Chad Patrick (3-8, 3.66 ERA)
• San Diego: Dylan Cease (8-12, 4.64 ERA)

Brewers vs. Padres How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, Sept. 24
• Time: 4:10 p.m. EST
• Venue: Petco Park
• How to Watch (TV): MLB Network, SDPA, FDSWI
• Brewers record: 95-63
• Padres record: 87-71

Brewers vs. Padres Best MLB Prop Bets

Padres Best MLB Prop Bet

• Dylan Cease OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-137)

This season, Cease has struck out six or more batters in 23 of his 31 outings, making him an interesting target on Wednesday against a tough Brewers team. 

Milwaukee is fifth in MLB in strikeouts per game (7.78), but Cease wouldn’t even need to hit the team’s season average to clear this mark at home on Wednesday. 

Cease’s advanced numbers are strong, as he ranks in the 94th percentile in whiff percentage and the 88th percentile in strikeout percentage in the 2025 season. Plus, he can be a workhorse for the Padres, throwing 100 or more pitches in three starts this month and 10 overall in 2025.

I think he’s a safe bet to record six or more punchouts on Wednesday. 

Brewers vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

Despite a shaky ERA on the surface (4.64), Cease has actually pitched pretty well in the 2025 season if you focus on his advanced numbers. He ranks in the 72nd percentile in expected ERA (3.48), the 80th percentile in expected batting average against (.221), the 94th percentile in whiff percentage and the 88th percentile in strikeout percentage.

So, it’s not a surprise that the Padres are over .500 (17-14) in his starts even though his ERA and record don’t reflect a great season.

On the Brewers’ side, Patrick ranks in the 53rd percentile in expected ERA (3.89), and Milwaukee has won just one game that he’s started since June 1. 

For a Brewers team that is pushing 100 wins in the 2025 season, that’s an impressive feat. 

Milwaukee has essentially nothing to play for in this game, as it already has the inside track to the No. 1 spot in the National League. So, I wouldn’t be shocked to see a hungry Padres team – that would love to win the division – come out and pick up a win on Wednesday.

San Diego has outscored the Brewers 12-4 in this series, and it does have the No. 1 bullpen in MLB (3.04 ERA) backing Cease up on Wednesday afternoon.

The Padres should build on a strong home record (21 games over .500) in this one. 

Pick: Padres Moneyline (-121 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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