British Open Score Predictions: Forecasting the Winning Total at Royal Portrush

Iain MacMillan | Jul 15, 2025

Xander Schauffele won the 2024 Open Championship with a final score of -9. / Jack Gruber-Imagn Images

The 2025 edition of the British Open is at Royal Portrush this week for the first time since 2019.

We've seen a variety of winning scores at the Open Championship throughout the year. Padraig Harrington won the British Open in 2008 with a winning score of 3 over, and Cameron Smith won in 2022 with a winning score of 20 under.

I think we can confidently say this week's winning score will land somewhere between those two numbers, but what exactly will the winning score be? In this article, I'm going to try to predict both the winning score and the final score for the top 10 golfers on the odds list.

British Open score predictions

British Open winning score prediction: -13

Shane Lowry won the event with a final score of 15 under when it was last hosted at Royal Portrush in 2019, but the margin of victory was six strokes with the runner-up, Tommy Fleetwood, coming in at 9 under.

The weather conditions play a massive role in the scoring capability of this course, evidenced by the difference between scoring on Saturday and Sunday in 2019. On Saturday, light winds in the afternoon led to Lowry setting the course record with a 63. On Sunday, in heavy wind and rain, no player who was in the top 10 after Saturday shot lower than a 71.

That makes predicting this year's winning score a tough challenge. As of early this week, it looks like rain and light wind will be consistent throughout the weekend. Scoring conditions won't be easy, but unless the wind picks up, they won't be extremely difficult either. I see the winning score coming in the low double-digits.

Scottie Scheffler (+450) score prediction: -7

The one thing we have yet to see Scottie Scheffler achieve in his career is to win on a links-style course in tough conditions. That doesn't mean he can't do exactly that this week, but I'm not ready to predict that he's the one who will win. We have seen that even when he brings his "C-" game, he can still post a top-10 finish, which is closer to what I think his result will be at Royal Portrush.

Rory McIlroy (+750) score prediction: -10

Rory McIlroy returns to his home country, and while I expect him to post a better finish than he did when he missed the cut here in 2019, I think he'll fall just short. He has stated this is the major he had circled on his calendar at the beginning of the year, even more so than the Masters. Is he going to be able to overcome the pressure he has put on himself and do enough to win?

Jon Rahm (+1200) score prediction: -11

Jon Rahm is a popular pick this week, but the story of his season has been great results, but no wins. He has posted 11 top-10 finishes across LIV and the three majors this season, but has yet to get a victory. Whether that's just being on the bad side of variance or if it's something psychological, I'm not ready to bet on him getting his first win of 2025 at a major.

Bryson DeChambeau (+2000) score prediction: Missed Cut

Bryson DeChambeau thrives on U.S. Open and PGA Championship style of courses. British Open courses, often at links-style venues, demand a level of improvisation and artistry that isn't a strength of DeChambeau. That has reflected in his stats. He has missed the cut here three times over the past seven years, and outside of his one T8 finish in 2022, he hasn't finished better than T33. He missed the cut at Royal Portrush in 2019, so I'm going to predict that he's missing the cut again this year.

Xander Schauffele (+2500) score prediction: -4

Xander Schauffele is the defending British Open champion, but he has yet to be in his 2024 form so far in 2025. He has shown flashes of last year's form at times, but he's failed to put together a full tournament from start to finish. He'll make the cut and be in the mix on Saturday, but he'll fall short of truly contending on Sunday.

Tommy Fleetwood (+2800) score prediction: -6

Tommy Fleetwood was the runner-up at the British Open at Royal Portrush in 2019, and many people are betting on him this week because of that, but I'm not falling for the Fleetwood trap again. If he doesn't have the mental fortitude to win a non-signature event on the PGA Tour, he certainly doesn't have what it takes to win a major championship at this point in his career. I foresee another disappointing finish for him this week.

Viktor Hovland (+3000) score prediction: -12

I'm high on Viktor Hovland this week, but I couldn't quite get there to pick him to win, so I'm going to predict a runner-up finish for the Norwegian. He had a rough start to the season but has shown a return to form of late, resulting in a solo third finish at the U.S. Open and a T11 finish at the Scottish Open last week. His play around the greens still loses him strokes on a weekly basis, and that's going to be enough to prevent him from winning at Royal Portrush.

Tyrrell Hatton (+3000) score prediction: -6

Tyrrell Hatton has posted some strong finishes at the British Open, including a T6 finish when it was hosted at Royal Portrush in 2019. He has a T4 finish at this year's U.S. Open, but a T23 finish at last week's LIV event gives me some concern for his current form.

Ludvig Aberg (+3000) score prediction: -4

It's only a matter of time until Ludvig Aberg wins a major, but I'm not sure if his style of play is fit for a British Open where creativity and accuracy reign supreme over distance and power. He's still going to make the weekend, but I don't see him being in contention on Sunday.

Shane Lowry (+3500) score prediction: -3

The defending Royal Portrush champion comes into this year's edition of the British Open in poor form. He hasn't posted a top 10 finish since the Truist Championship in May and has missed the cut at both the PGA Championship and U.S. Open. He didn't play at last week's Scottish Open, so there's a chance he has found his form, but I don't expect him to post another win at this course.

Robert MacIntyre (+4000) score prediction: -13

You might have been wondering why I didn't have any of the top 10 golfers on the odds list finishing with a 13-under score, despite that being my prediction for the winning score this week. That's because I have Robert MacIntyre pegged as the winner at Royal Portrush. I broke down why in my full betting preview, which you can read here.

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