Broncos vs. Commanders Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 13 (Can Broncos Improve to 10-2?)

Iain MacMillan | Nov 30, 2025

The Broncos are road favorites against the Commanders in NFL Week 13 action. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The Denver Broncos have a firm grasp on the AFC West and are now eyeing the No. 1 seed in the AFC. The next step in their quest to do exactly that is getting a win on Sunday Night Football against the Washington Commanders.

Let's take a look at the latest odds for this prime-time showdown, and then I'll attempt to correctly predict the game's final score.

Broncos vs. Commanders Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

• Broncos -5.5 (-110)
• Commanders +5.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Broncos -260
• Commanders +215

Total

• OVER 43.5 (-110)
• UNDER 43.5 (-110)

The spread has moved one point in the Commanders' direction, from +6.5 to +5.5. The total has remained steady throughout the week at 43.5.

Broncos vs. Commanders Final Score Prediction

In this week's edition of the Road to 272 Bets, I wrote about why I'm taking the points with the Commanders:

The Broncos are a completely different team when on the road compared to at home. Their net yards per play drop from +1.2 at home to +0.5 on the road. Their offense keeps them from being able to run away and create separation from their opponents. They're 16th in the league in EPA per play and 29th in success rate. Only the Raiders, Titans, and Browns rank worse in success rate than the Broncos.

That causes me to hesitate to lay the 6.5 points on the Broncos when they hit the road to take on a Commanders team whose offense has still managed to move the ball, even when Jayden Daniels doesn't play. You might be surprised to find out they're 13th in EPA per play and sixth in success rate, behind only the Rams, Colts, 49ers, Chiefs, and Packers. Marcus Mariota is 13th in EPA+CPOE, which is just one spot below Jared Goff this season.

When it comes to the total, I think it stays UNDER the set total of 43.5. The Broncos are built like an ideal team for low-scoring games. Their defense is elite, but their offense struggles more often than not. I think the Commanders will score enough to cover this spread, but the Broncos will ultimately win a low-scoring game.

Final score prediction: Broncos 22, Commanders 21

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