California vs. Louisville Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for Wednesday, March 5

Reed Wallach | Mar 5, 2025

Louisville guard Chucky Hepburn (24) was applauded by the fans as he dribbled out the game against Pittsburgh at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Ky. on Mar. 1, 2025. Louisville won 79-68. / Sam Upshaw Jr./Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

One of the best stories in college basketball, Louisville will look to continue its stellar season under first-year head coach Pat Kelsey. 

The Cardinals are primed for a deep ACC Tournament run and beyond and will get a chance to further its cause with a win as a massive favorite at home against Cal. 

The Golden Bears have struggled in their first season in the new league and may be in for a brutal matchup against a spaced-out Cardinals offense, but the team has been a strong bet as an underdog. How should we handle this point spread? 

Let’s break it down below. 

California vs. Louisville Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• California: +13.5 (-102)
• Louisville: -13.5 (-120)

Moneyline

• California: +740
• Louisville: -1250

Total: 153.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

California vs. Louisville How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, March 5th
• Game Time: 9:00 PM EST
• Venue: KFC Yum! Center
• How to Watch (TV): ACC Network
• California Record: 13-16
• Louisville Record: 23-6

California vs. Louisville Key Players to Watch

California

Jeremiah Wilkinson: The freshman will try to navigate Louisville’s defense as he has been forced to do for much of this season. While his shooting has dwindled in ACC play, he has done a sound job protecting the ball and being a downhill threat for the Cal offense that desperately needs offensive juice. Wilkinson is averaging about 15 points on the season.

Louisville  

Chucky Hepburn: Fresh off 37 points against Pitt, Hepburn will look for an encore against Cal. The Wisconsin transfer has been an All-ACC First Team candidate with 16 points and six assists while adding over two steals. He’s a terror on defense and an elite shot creator. 

California vs. Louisville Prediction and Pick

Cal is an interesting matchup for Louisville as the team does try to force the Cardinals out of its comfort zone. 

The Golden Bears funnel teams off the three-point line, allowing the conference’s lowest three-point rate while bolstering a middling defensive rebounding rate. Now, Louisville plays up-tempo basketball around off-ball motion and by hoisting from distance, leading the ACC in three-point rate. 

Cal’s commitment to negating the three-point shot has led to some strong numbers on the road (9-3) and as an underdog (10-5) this season, but instead, I’m going to take the under. 

The Golden Bears have gone under in 11 of 15 games this season as an underdog as the team’s offense can’t hold up in ACC play, last in effective field goal percentage in conference games. 

However, the defensive philosophy is there, and Louisville's offense has been overrated in terms of totals, going under in 19 of 29 games this season. Despite the three-point happy offense, the Cardinals are poised to go under yet again on Wednesday with a shaky matchup. 

PICK: UNDER 153.5 (-105, available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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