Canada vs. USA Prediction and Odds for 4 Nations Face-Off Championship

Iain MacMillan | Feb 19, 2025

Canada and USA will face-off in a rematch in the 4 Nations Face-Off Championship. / Eric Bolte-Imagn Images

The United States and Canada faced off in an emotional duel in the round-robin meeting at the 4 Nations Face-Off. The US got past the Canadians, beating them by a final score of 3-1, but that win will be meaningless if they don't beat them again in Thursday's championship.

Canada was at risk of not advancing to the final but a dominant regulation win against Finland on Monday earned them a rematch with the Americans in the tournament's championship.

Let's check out the odds for Thursday night's final and then I'll break down which side I'm backing.

Canada vs. USA Odds and Total for 4 Nations Face-Off Championship

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Puck Line

• Canada +1.5 (-275)
• United States -1.5 (+220)

Moneyline

• Canada -110
• United State -110

Total

• 5.5 (Over +100/Under -120)

Canada vs. USA How to Watch

• Date: Monday, February 17
• Game Time: 8:00 PM EST
• Venue: TD Garden
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN, ESPN+, SN, TVAS
• Canada Record: 1-1-0-1
• USA Record: 2-0-0-1

Canada vs. USA Prediction for 4 Nations Face-Off Championship

The best defenseman in hockey was out of the lineup for Canada the first time these two teams faced-off and with him back in the lineup people expect Canada to get its revenge and win the final, but I wouldn't be so quick to bet that happening.

I picked the United States to win the first meeting because of the goaltending mismatch between these two teams and that was exactly the difference maker. Based on advanced metrics, Canada "deserved" to win the game, but the mix between Connor Hellebuyck standing on his head and Jordan Binnington letting in a couple of weak goals led to the United States getting the win.

The story after two periods pic.twitter.com/arEsfNbIGB

— MoneyPuck.com (@MoneyPuckdotcom) February 16, 2025

Unfortunately for my fellow Canadians, I see the same thing happening on Thursday night. Canada's roster selection has cost them on the international stage more than once throughout the year and we're seeing another example of it this year. The decision to not bring Logan Thompson, the top goalie in the NHL this season based on goals saved above expected, but instead bring Binnington, who has a sub-.900 save percentage, is baffling.

You can rightfully argue Canada has the better roster, but in a game between two stacked rosters, the difference between winning and losing comes down to goaltending and when you have Hellebuyck against a borderline NHL starter, the decision is an easy one.

Pick: USA -110

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