Cardinals vs. Rays Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Thursday, Aug. 21

Sean Treppedi | Aug 21, 2025

Sonny Gray's durability is a reason we're targeting both the Under and his strikeout prop Thursday. / Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

The Cardinals and Rays open an interleague set Thursday with both clubs clinging to faint postseason hopes but carrying plenty of question marks. 

St. Louis has dropped six of its last eight games, struggling to generate consistency at the plate despite hot stretches from Pedro Pages and Alec Burleson. 

Tampa Bay, meanwhile, has been in free fall, losers of three straight and stuck at just 61–66 despite solid individual seasons from Junior Caminero and Yandy Díaz. 

Sonny Gray (11-6, 4.30 ERA) takes the ball for St. Louis, and while the ERA looks high, his strikeout rate and advanced metrics suggest he’s pitched better than the surface tells. 

Joe Boyle (1-2, 4.68 ERA) counters for the Rays, a young power arm who’s shown flashes with 34 strikeouts in 32.2 innings but continues to be undone by shaky command with 18 walks in that span.

Cardinals vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Cardinals -1.5 (+140)
• Rays +1.5 (-170)

Moneyline

• Cardinals (-118)
• Orioles (+100)

Total

• Over 8.5 (-105)
• Under 8.5 (-115)

Cardinals vs. Rays How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, August 21, 2025
• Time: 7:35 p.m. ET
• Venue: George Steinbrenner Field
• How to Watch (TV): FDSN Midwest, FDSN Sun
• Cardinals Record: 63-65
• Rays Record: 61-66

Cardinals vs. Rays Probable Pitchers

• Cardinals: Sonny Gray (11-6, 4.30 ERA)
• Rays: Joe Boyle (1-2, 4.68 ERA)

Cardinals vs. Rays Prop Bet

• Sonny Gray Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-140 at FanDuel)

Gray has reached seven strikeouts in eight of his last 12 starts, riding a whiff-heavy breaking ball mix that generates a career-high swinging strike rate. He’s been steady, allowing three earned runs or fewer in 15 of his last 18 starts, and has excellent peripherals (3.85 FIP, 155 Ks in 140.1 innings). Tampa Bay’s bats are especially vulnerable here, averaging 8.6 strikeouts per game, one of the highest clips in the majors. The Rays’ younger hitters like Caminero and Josh Lowe are aggressive early in counts, exactly the kind of approach Gray exploits with his curveball and sweeper. 

Cardinals vs. Rays Prediction and Pick

While Gray’s strikeout arsenal plays well against a Rays lineup that ranks near the top of the league in Ks, his ability to work deep into games limits exposure to the bullpen. Tampa Bay’s offense has cratered lately, outscored by 19 runs in its last 10 contests, while St. Louis hasn’t been much better, leaning heavily on the top of its lineup for production. St. Louis has been far from punishing with runners on, ranking bottom half of the league in OPS with men in scoring position. Add in the neutral-to-pitcher-friendly park environment at Steinbrenner Field and two lineups struggling for rhythm, and a low-scoring affair looks fair.

Pick: Under 8.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

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