Cavaliers vs. Heat Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Playoffs Game 3

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Cleveland Cavaliers-Miami Heat matchup in Game 3 of the NBA playoffs.

The Cavs are road favorites in Game 3. / David Richard-Imagn Images

The Cleveland Cavaliers survived a second-half push by the Miami Heat in Game 2 of the first round to take a commanding 2-0 series lead heading into Friday’s Game 3.

Erik Spoelstra dropped to 10-4 straight up in Game 2s after losing Game 1 with the loss, and he’ll now need to rally his underdog Heat squad to avoid falling into a 0-3 hole.

The Heat have been competitive in this series, but Cleveland’s offense has ended up being too much in both games. The Cavs had the best offensive rating of any team in the league in the regular season, and that is true in the playoffs as well through two games.

Oddsmakers have set Cleveland as a road favorite in Game 3, but can Miami protect home court after playing on the road in the play-in tournament and playoffs for the last week-plus?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for this Game 3 matchup.  

Cavaliers vs. Heat Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Cavs -6 (-110)
• Heat +6 (-110)

Moneyline

• Cavs: -230
• Heat: +190

Total

• 213 (Over -110/Under -110)

Cavaliers vs. Heat How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, April 26
• Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Kaseya Center
• How to Watch (TV): TNT
• Series: Cavs lead 2-0

Cavaliers vs. Heat Injury Reports

Cavs Injury Report

• Darius Garland – questionable

Heat Injury Report

• Alec Burks – available
• Haywood Highsmith – available
• Nikola Jovic – available
• Pelle Larsson – available 
• Duncan Robinson – available
• Kevin Love – out
• Terry Rozier – out

Cavaliers vs. Heat Best NBA Prop Bets

Cleveland Cavaliers Best NBA Prop Bet

• Donovan Mitchell OVER 35.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-115)

Over his last seven playoff games (dating back to last season), Donovan Mitchell has easily cleared this line in all of them: 

• 50 PTS | 4 REB | 4 AST – 58 PRA
• 39 PTS | 9 REB | 5 AST – 53 PRA
• 33 PTS | 6 REB | 5 AST – 44 PRA
• 29 PTS | 7 REB | 8 AST – 44 PRA
• 33 PTS | 6 REB | 3 AST – 42 PRA
• 30 PTS | 5 REB | 4 AST – 39 PRA
• 30 PTS | 6 REB | 6 AST – 42 PRA

He’s scored 30 points in back-to-back games against Miami in this series, giving him an extremely high floor when it comes to this prop.

I’ll back the Cavs star to keep his hot streak going in Game 3. 

Miami Heat Best NBA Prop Bet

• Davion Mitchell OVER 10.5 Points (-130)

Davion Mitchell has scored 15 or more points in every game since the start of the NBA’s play-in tournament, and he was moved into the starting lineup in Game 2 of this series.

Mitchell responded in a big way, shooting 7-for-9 from the field and 2-for-4 from 3 on his way to an 18-point game. Counting his play-in tournament games, Mitchell has 11 or more points in 10 of his last 11 games.

Known for his defense, Mitchell is playing a massive role for the Heat in this series and should easily clear this line if he plays over 30 minutes again on Friday. 

Cavaliers vs. Heat Prediction and Pick

The first two games in this series have both been high scoring, as these teams combined for 221 points in Game 1 and 233 in Game 2.

While the Heat finished the regular season with the No. 9 defensive rating in the NBA, they haven’t had any answers for Donovan Mitchell and the Cavs, who have scored 112 or more points in all five meetings (including playoffs) between these teams this season.

Miami’s season-long offensive numbers weren’t great, but over its last 10 games in the regular season, it ranked fourth in the league in offensive rating. That has carried over a bit into the play-in tournament and playoffs, especially with Tyler Herro putting together some huge games.

During the regular season, Cleveland was the second-best OVER team on the road (26-15) while Miami was 21-20 to the OVER at home.

This total is too low for my liking given how the opening two games of this series have gone for these offenses. 

Pick: OVER 213 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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