Celtics vs. Warriors Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for MLK Day (Monday, Jan. 20)

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Golden State Warriors-Boston Celtics matchup on Monday.

Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum is a great prop target tonight. / Paul Rutherford-Imagn Images

The Boston Celtics haven’t played their best basketball of the season since late December, but they remain in the No. 2 spot in the Eastern Conference standings.

Boston is just 6-4 in its last 10 games, but Jayson Tatum and company find themselves as 10.5-point favorites on Monday against the Golden State Warriors.

Golden State has won two games in a row to get back over .500 on the season after a brutal 7-17 stretch in the middle of the campaign. The Warriors may not have Steph Curry (questionable) in this game, and they've already ruled out Draymond Green, Jonathan Kuminga, Brandin Podziemski and Kyle Anderson against Boston.

This is a rematch of the 2022 NBA Finals, but the Warriors are in a much different position now, as they hold the No. 11 seed in the West – clawing just to stay in the play-in tournament mix.

Here’s a breakdown of this matchup, including the odds, best prop bets and my prediction on Monday as the NBA and world honors Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. 

Celtics vs. Warriors Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Celtics -10.5 (-108)
• Warriors +10.5 (-112)

Moneyline

• Celtics: -470
• Warriors: +360

Total

• 224 (Over -110/Under -110)

Celtics vs. Warriors How to Watch

• Date: Monday, Jan. 20
• Time: 5:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Chase Center
• How to Watch (TV): TNT/truTV/Max
• Celtics record: 29-13
• Warriors record: 21-20

Celtics vs. Warriors Injury Reports

Celtics Injury Report

• Anton Watson – out
• JD Davison – out
• Drew Peterson – out

Warriors Injury Report

• Steph Curry – questionable
• Draymond Green – out
• Kyle Anderson – out
• Jonathan Kuminga – out
• Brandin Podziemski – out

Celtics vs. Warriors Best NBA Prop Bets 

Boston Celtics Best NBA Prop Bet

• Jayson Tatum OVER 26.5 Points (-105)

Could this be a big game for Jayson Tatum? Earlier today in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – I shared why the Celtics star could be in line for a strong scoring performance:

Tatum has cleared 26.5 points in three of his last four games against Golden State, and he enters Monday’s matchup averaging 27.7 points per game. 

The star forward has seen that number dip to 25.3 points per game since Christmas Day, but it’s not for a lack of volume. Tatum is still attempting 19.3 shots (9.5 from 3) per game over that stretch, he’s just seen his 3-point percentage dip to 32.5 percent.

Golden State’s defense has taken a major step back since it started the season 12-3, and Tatum already poured in 32 points on 10-of-20 shooting against the Warriors earlier this season. Don’t be shocked if he has a big game – and at least reaches his season average – on Monday.   

Golden State Warriors Best NBA Prop Bet

• Steph Curry OVER 5.5 Assists (-145)

If Curry suits up, he’s a must bet in his assists prop now that Green is out of the lineup.

This season, Curry is averaging 9.0 assists per game in the four games that he’s played without Green, picking up at least seven dimes in each matchup. Overall, the star guard is averaging 6.2 assists per game this season. 

He should be able to get over 5.5 dimes even though the C’s are fourth in the NBA in opponent assists allowed per game. 

Celtics vs. Warriors Prediction and Pick

Curry’s status in this game will go a long way to deciding on this bet, but even if he plays I think Boston is the team to trust.

The C’s have not played their best basketball as of late, mainly due to a drop in 3-point shooting (19th in 3-point percentage over their last 10 games). However, the Warriors have fallen off since a 12-3 start to the season, ranking 17th in defense, 18th in offense and 18th in net rating over their last 10 games. 

That won’t get it done against Boston, especially with Green, Kuminga and Podziemski all out of the lineup.

Boston is just 8-8-1 against the spread as a road favorite, but it has an average scoring margin of better than 11 points per game in those matchups. Meanwhile, the Warriors are 3-4 without Green and average eight less points per game this season. 

I’ll lay the points with Boston. 

Pick: Celtics -10.5 (-108)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.