Charles Schwab Challenge Picks, Props and Predictions: Betting Jordan Spieth, Scottie Scheffler and Daniel Berger

Brian Giuffra | May 21, 2025

Aaron Rai (left), Harris English (center) and Jordan Spieth (right) are among our outright betting picks. / Aaron Rai: Raj Mehta/Getty ImagesHarris English: Orlando Ramirez/Getty ImagesJordan Spieth: Ben Jared/PGA TOUR via Getty ImagesBackground: Sam Hodde/Getty Images

The SI Golf betting panel didn’t hit the outright on Scottie Scheffler at the PGA Championship and is looking to end a streak of four weeks without an outright winner. Still, SI Golf betting insiders Iain MacMillan and Matt Vincenzi hit big props at the PGA Championship and are the hot hands there.

Like Scheffler, there are no weeks off, and we’re ready to hit a big win at the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club. Scheffler is the betting favorite to win (+240 at FanDuel), but like last week, we’re looking for more favorable odds on the outright market. 

This week’s betting panel is comprised of MacMillan and Vincenzi, SI senior golf editor John Schwarb, FanSided senior editor Cody Williams and Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra. Each week, we make picks for our outright winner, longshot, first-round leader, favorite prop bet and winning score prediction. Inside Sports Network Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner is out this week as he enjoys a few pints in the UK. 

Colonial is known as one of the more challenging courses to score on. The Bermuda rough is unforgiving and it’s more of a tactical course than a bomber's paradise. Accuracy on approach is key here. 

Below are picks from the panel with explanations below the graphic. Kirschner (+107 units), Vincenzi (+87 units) and Williams (+10 units) have all hit outrights this year. MacMillan (-36 units), Giuffra (-39 units) and Schwarb (-53 units) are still looking for their first. 

Let’s break the streak! 

Charles Schwab betting picks. / Sports Illustrated

Outright 

Iain MacMillan: Harris English +4000 (FanDuel)

Harris English is fresh off a T2 finish at the PGA Championship at an event where he led the field in strokes gained approach, averaging 1.99 strokes per round. Now, he heads to Colonial Country Club, a course he has plenty of experience at and one that fits his style of play well. If anyone can challenge Scottie Scheffler this week, it very well could be English.

Matt Vincenzi: Jordan Spieth +2500 (BetMGM)

Spieth absolutely loves Colonial. He won at the course in 2016 and has six additional top-10 finishes since then. Over his last 36 rounds, the three-time major winner ranks first in strokes-gained total at Colonial, fifth in strokes-gained off the tee on courses with high rough penalty, second in strokes-gained total in Texas and ninth in strokes-gained off the tee. 

John Schwarb: Daniel Berger +2200 (FanDuel)

I picked Berger as my long shot at the PGA and he came home T33 with his best round on Sunday, a leaderboard-climbing 68. He’s still looking for win No. 1 since his prolonged injury absence and this is a great spot, given his course history (2020 champ) and the weaker field. He’s actually tied for the second betting favorite behind Scheffler. 

Cody Williams: Si Woo Kim +4000 (FanDuel)

When Si Woo Kim is trending, he’s going to put himself in contention. He’s certainly doing that of late. His T8 at Quail Hollow was preceded by a T17 at the Truist, T15 at the Byron Nelson and T8 at the RBC Heritage. He’s been dynamite on approach, particularly over his last three tournaments, gaining at least 3.2 strokes in those events on approach alone. As an accurate driver who has improved his short game as well, I love the fit for him to shine at Colonial this week. 

Brian Giuffra: Aaron Rai +3300 (FanDuel) 

Rai ranks 16th on Tour in Shots Gained: Tee-to-Green this year and 21st in SG: Approach. That accuracy is important on a course where avoiding trouble is key. He ranked ninth and third in those categories at the PGA Championship, but finished T19 because of poor putting. Still, that he clocked a Top 20 while losing strokes on the green is a testament to how well he’s striking the ball currently. He was T32 and T12 the last two years at this event, so he has some positive history to build on. This is the sort of event he can win. 

Longshot 

Iain MacMillan: Alex Smalley +9000 (FanDuel)

Alex Smalley will try to channel the form he found at the Myrtle Beach Classic (T5) and the PGA Championship (T28) and turn that into a win at this week’s event. He’s seventh in the field in strokes gained tee to green over the past six months, yet he’s priced at 90-1 in a relatively weak field. With Colonial favoring accuracy over distance, this could be a huge week for Smalley.

Matt Vincenzi: Gary Woodland +10000 (BetMGM)

Gary Woodland has had some recent back issues, but if healthy, I love his ability to play well this week at Colonial. Woodland ranks fourth in the field in strokes-gained total in Texas over his past 36 rounds. Earlier this season, the 40-year-old finished T2 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. He’s made five starts at Colonial and finished in the top 15 in two of those starts, with his best finish coming in the star-studded 2020 field (ninth).

John Schwarb: Alex Smalley +9000 (FanDuel)

Alex Smalley had a five-week stretch from mid-March through April where he missed four of five cuts (including two Texas events) but has since recovered with a T39 at the Byron Nelson, T5 at Myrtle Beach and T28 at the PGA. Statistically, he does everything pretty well, including ranking second in total driving and 57th in approach (with many above him not playing this week). More than enough ingredients for a long shot.

Cody Williams: Mac Meissner +15000 (FanDuel)

We’ve only seen Mac Meissner once at Colonial and that resulted in a T5 last year. While he’s not nearly in the same form, he checks the boxes that you’re looking for in a lot of ways. He played well at Memorial Park in Houston, particularly gaining 2.14 strokes on approach and 3.15 strokes around the green. More importantly, while his overall approach play has been inconsistent, he’s been fantastic on short Par 4s, of which there are plenty at Colonial. That’s because his approach play has shined from 125-175 yards out. The driver is a worry as it's been erratic, but I’ll take 150-1 based on last year and the underlying approach numbers.

Brian Giuffra: Lucas Glover +7000 (FanDuel) 

With a T12 here last year and a T8 in 2020, Glover’s accurate approach game plays well at Colonial. He’s 24th on Tour in SG: App this season and 27th in SG: T2G. He’ll need that to be his primary weapon at a course that demands accuracy. His putting, as always, is the biggest question mark, but last year he gained the third most strokes of any player in the field on the greens. If he hits the ball better this year and putts the same, he could win this. 

First-Round Leader 

Iain MacMillan: Daniel Berger +4000 (FanDuel)

Daniel Berger returns to the site of his 2020 win in what was the first tournament back in action after the break caused by COVID-19. Colonial fits his game well and he could be poised for another big performance after seemingly finding some form of late, finishing T3 at the RBC Heritage a few weeks ago at a Harbour Town course that’s very similar to the one he’ll be playing this week. Berger is also third in the field in Round 1 strokes gained tee to green.

Matt Vincenzi: Rickie Fowler +9000 (DraftKings)

Fowler missed the cut at the PGA Championship, but continued to show signs of improvement. He gained strokes on the field in his two rounds, both on approach and off the tee. He lost 2.34 strokes around the green, which feels like more of an outlier than anything. In 11 trips to Colonial, Fowler has four top 20 finishes, including his best finish in 2023, where he finished T6

John Schwarb: Keith Mitchell +5500 (FanDuel)

Trying not to overthink this one: Keith Mitchell leads the Tour in first-round scoring average and he’s playing this week. Scheffler could certainly come flying out of the gate but there’s no money in that. Instead, I’ll take 55-1 on a guy who eats up Thursdays.

Cody Williams: Tom Hoge +8000 (FanDuel)

A short golf course with a premium placed on approach play? Whatever the call of Tom Hoge is for the people, that’s what you’re hearing with that type of setup. Hoge is quietly still 16th in the field in SG: Approach over the last 16 rounds. While I don’t trust his short game to have him as an outright, he’s been a microwave early in tournaments plenty of times in his career, and this could be a spot for him to showcase his skill set to the max. 

Brian Giuffra: Harris English +5000 (FanDuel) 

English is coming off an outstanding Sunday at the PGA Championship where hs shot 65 to backdoor a runner-up finish. For the event, he gained the second most strokes behind Scottie Scheffler and led the field in SG: Approach. He has a runner-up here in the past and was T12 in 2023, so there’s also some strong course history. I’m betting he keeps his hot streak going in Round 1 this week. 

Prop Bet

Iain MacMillan: Scottie Scheffler Wire-to-Wire +1600 (DraftKings)

I have no desire to bet +250 on Scottie Scheffler to win this event. Instead, I’m getting aggressive with my Scheffler bet and wagering on him to post a wire-to-wire victory at a much more attractive +1600 odds. Over the past six months, Scheffler has gained +3.27 true strokes per round, according to DataGolf.com. That's 1.49 strokes better than the next best golfer in this week’s field, who is Daniel Berger at +1.78.

Matt Vincenzi: Christiaan Bezuidenhout Top 10 +550 (FanDuel) 

Christiaan Bezuidenhout may lack the recent finishes to show it, but I believe he's finding his form. At the Truist Championship, the South African gained strokes both off the tee and on approach for the first time since 2024. He followed that up with his best strokes-gained approach performance since the 2024 Players Championship last week at Quail Hollow. For the week, he ranked ninth in approach, tied with the winner Scottie Scheffler.

John Schwarb: Si Woo Kim Top Asian (+330 DraftKings)

Si Woo Kim has been hot for a month, finishing T15 across town at the Byron Nelson, then T17 at the signature event Truist and T8 at the PGA Championship. Hideki Matsuyama is the favorite in this prop but missed the cut at Quail Hollow, so I’ll hope Kim isn’t too tired to have one more solid week.

Cody Williams: Henrik Norlander Top 40 +170 (BetMGM)

I certainly didn’t expect to see that Henrik Norlander ranks second in this field in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds, but here we are. What has hurt him in many cases has been the fact that he’s only averaging 290.4 yards off the tee over that span. That won’t hurt him as much at Colonial, however, and ranking 16th in Good Drive Percentage should be more to his advantage. With that profile in this field, getting plus money for only a Top 40 (ties included) is too juicy to pass up. 

Brian Giuffra: Aaron Rai Top 20 +110 (FanDuel) 

I’ve been a little cold on my prop bets recently as I went for some juicer payouts. That strategy backfired, so I’m back to what I was doing earlier in the season – picking players I think have the makeup to win to finish in the Top 20. Similar to picking a team to cover in the NFL who you think can win the game, I’m rolling with that strategy on Rai, whose game, as mentioned above, fits this course well and enters the tournament in excellent form. 

Winning Score 

• Iain MacMillan: -16
• Matt Vincenzi: -11
• John Schwarb: -14
• Cody Williams: -13
• Brian Giuffra: -12