Chiefs vs. Eagles Betting Preview, Odds and Prediction for Super Bowl 59

Iain MacMillan | Jan 27, 2025

The Chiefs are small favorites to the Eagles in Super Bowl 59. / Matt Kartozian-Imagn Images

The Super Bowl 59 matchup in New Orleans is officially set.

The Kansas City Chiefs are back in the big game for the third straight year, set to face the Philadelphia Eagles in a rematch of Super Bowl 57.

The Chiefs have been to the Super Bowl five times in the Patrick Mahomes era but has only faced three teams. They beat the 49ers for the second time in their current dynasty last year and now have a chance to break the hearts of Philadelphia fans for a second time in three seasons.

Now that the matchup is set, it's time to dive into everything you need to know to bet this game.

Chiefs vs. Eagles Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

• Chiefs -1.5 (-115)
• Eagles +1.5 (-105)

Moneyline

• Chiefs -132
• Eagles +112

Total

• OVER 49.5 (-105)
• UNDER 49.5 (-115)

Chiefs vs. Eagles How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, February 9
• Time: 6:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Caesars Superdome
• How to Watch (TV): FOX
• Chiefs record: 15-2
• Eagles record: 14-3

Chiefs vs. Eagles Betting Trends

• Chiefs are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games
• The UNDER is 6-2 in the Chiefs' last eight games
• Chiefs are 4-1 SU and ATS in last five games vs. Eagles
• Patrick Mahomes is 7-0 ATS in the playoffs when the spread is inside of three points
• Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five games
• The OVER is 12-4 the last 16 times the Eagles played a team from the AFC West
• Favorites are 9-18-2 ATS in the last 29 Super Bowls
• Team with the better record is 2-19-1 ATS in the last 22 Super Bowls featuring teams with different records

Chiefs vs. Eagles Injury Reports

Chiefs Injury Report

• Mecole Harman, WR - IR
• Marlon Tuipuloty, DT - IR
• Skyy Moore, WR - IR
• Rashee Rice, WR - IR
• Jack Cochrane, LB - IR

Eagles Injury Report

• Kenneth Gainwell, RB - Questionable
• Landon Dickerson, G - Questionable
• Byron Young, DT - IR-R
• Britain Covey, WR - IR-R
• Nakobe Dean, LB - IR

Chiefs vs. Eagles Key Players to Watch

Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes: There's nothing to be said about Patrick Mahomes that hasn't been said before. He's the greatest quarterback of our generation who continues to play his best in the biggest moments. Now, he can lead the Chiefs to doing something no team has ever done; win three straight Super Bowls.

Philadelphia Eagles

Saquon Barkley: The Eagles are a fun throw back of a team. It's been a long time since a running back has led a team to the Super Bowl but that's exactly what Saquon Barkley has done. Not only did he surpass 2,000 yards in 16 games in the regular season, but he's averaging 147.3 rushing yards per game in the playoffs and has already found the end zone five times. He is the key to keeping Mahomes off the field and leading Philadelphia to avenging their Super Bowl 57 loss.

Chiefs vs. Eagles Prediction and Pick

If you look at this matchup purely from an analytics perspective, you're going to want to the Eagles as underdogs. They outrank the Chiefs in virtually every single metric. Let's take a look at some of them below:

	Eagles	Chiefs
Net Yards per Play	+0.9	-0.3
Points per Play	0.438	0.365
Opponent Points per Play	0.297	0.318
EPA/Play	0.124	0.080
Opponent EPA/Play	-0.086	0.019
Success Rate	47.7%	45.4%
Opponent Success Rate	40.2%	44.1%
Red Zone TD%	58.02%	53.95%
Opponent Red Zone TD%	48.28%	53.33%
Third Down Conversion%	40.96%	48.19%
Opponent Third Down Conversion%	36.97%	43.9%
Average Turnover Differential	+1.1	+0.3

Areas the Eagles outrank the Chiefs: Net Yards per Play, Points per Play, Opponent Points per Play, EPA per Play, Opponent EPA per Play, Opponent Success Rate, Red Zone TD%, Opponent Red Zone TD%, Opponent Third Down Conversion%, and Average Turnover Differential.

Areas the Chiefs outrank the Eagles: Success Rate, Third Down Conversion%.

When it comes to the stylistic matchup, Philadelphia fans should be happy to find out the Chiefs defense ranks 15th in opponent rush EPA and ninth in opponent yards per carry, giving up 4.2 yards per rush. Meanwhile, the Eagles' defense ranks second in opponent dropback EPA and first in opponent yards per pass attempt, giving up just 5.5 yards per throw.

Now that I have all of that out of the way, I'm still going to bet the Chiefs. Kansas City has proven time and time again, year after year, that even if their opponent is the better team from an "analytics" perspective, but it doesn't matter. Patrick Mahomes has champion DNA, Andy Reid is an offensive mastermind, and Steve Spagnuolo may be the best defensive coordinator of all time.

Kansas City continuously plays its best football in the playoffs and that starts with Mahomes, who has now recorded seven playoff starts where he averaged an EPA of 0.5 or better, which is more than double the amount than any other QB in NFL history.

Playoff games above 0.5 EPA/Play:
MAHOMES 7

Brady 3
Allen 3
Peyton 3
Warner 3
Wilson 3

Big Ben 2
Flacco 2

Brees 1
Rodgers 1
Rivers 1

— 🌸sports tweeter Matthias🌸 (tonesetter) (@sportswaatcher) January 27, 2025

I have bet against the Chiefs in the playoffs way more than I should have the past few years. Thankfully, I have finally seen the light. A switch gets flipped for this team when they're in the postseason and I see no reason why that won't continue in New Orleans.

Pick: Chiefs -1.5 (-115)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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