Chiefs vs. Jaguars Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 5

Iain MacMillan | Sep 30, 2025

The Chiefs are road favorites against the Jaguars on Monday Night Football. / Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK

Week 5 of the NFL season will wrap up with a Monday Night Football showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Jacksonville Jaguars.

Both teams are off to relatively surprising starts. The Chiefs sit at 2-2 after losses to both the Los Angeles Chargers and Philadelphia Eagles. Meanwhile, the Jacksonville Jaguars are off to a strong 3-1 start in the Liam Coen era.

Let's dive into the odds and my best bet for this Monday Night Football showdown.

Chiefs vs. Jaguars Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Spread

• Chiefs -3.5 (-105)
• Jaguars +3.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• Chiefs -175
• Jaguars +145

Total

• OVER 46.5 (-110)
• UNDER 46.5 (-110)

Chiefs vs. Jaguars How to Watch

• Date: Monday, Oct. 6
• Game Time: 8:15 pm ET
• Venue: EverBank Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ABC/ESPN
• Chiefs Record: 2-2
• Jaguars Record: 3-1

Chiefs vs. Jaguars Betting Trends

• Chiefs are 6-12 ATS in their last 18 games
• Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. Jaguars
• Chiefs have won eight straight games vs. Jaguars
• Chiefs are 17-3 straight up in their last 20 games vs. AFC opponents
• Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last six games
• The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these two teams
• The UNDER is 5-1 in the Jaguars' last six home games

Chiefs vs. Jaguars Injury Reports

Chiefs Injury Report

• Kristian Fulton, CB - Questionable
• Mike Danna, DE - Questionable
• Rashee Rice, WR - Suspended
• Nazeeh Johnson, S - IR-IR
• Brandon George, LB - IR

Jaguars Injury Report

• Wyatt Milum, G - Questionable
• Dyami Brown, WR - Questionable
• Yasir Abdullah, LB - Questionable
• Travon Walker, DE - Questionable
• Eric Murray, S - Questionable

Chiefs vs. Jaguars Key Player to Watch

• Xavier Worthy, WR - Kansas City Chiefs

Xavier Worthy made his first start of the 2025 season and immediately made his presence felt, hauling in five receptions for 83 yards and adding 38 yards and a touchdown on the ground. He may be the secret ingredient to make this Chiefs' offense explosive again.

Chiefs vs. Jaguars Prediction and Pick

In this week's edition of the Road to 272 Bets, I broke down why I'm betting on the total instead of picking a side:

The Jaguars' defense is the reason why they're sitting at 3-1. They lead the NFL in opponent EPA per play, rank fifth in opponent success rate, and rank third in defensive DVOA. Offensively, they're just 18th in EPA per play and 14th in DVOA. Trevor Lawrence also ranks just 26th amongst starting quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE Composite, which is making me start to doubt the abilities of this Jaguars' offensive unit. The Chiefs' defense is also coming into this game off a strong defensive performance against the Baltimore Ravens, holding them to just 20 points.

With that in mind, I could see this being a low-scoring affair on Monday night.

Pick: UNDER 46.5 (-110) via BetMGM

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