Cincinnati vs. Oklahoma State Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for Big 12 Championship First Round

Reed Wallach | Mar 10, 2025

Cincinnati Bearcats guard Jizzle James (2) attempts to drive past Kansas State Wildcats guard Max Jones (2) in the first half of a NCAA men’s basketball game between the Cincinnati Bearcats and Kansas State Wildcats, Wednesday, March 5, 2025, at Fifth Third Arena in Cincinnati. / Frank Bowen IV/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Big 12 Tournament gets underway in Kansas City on Tuesday afternoon with first round action between Cincinnati and Oklahoma State. 

In a scheduling quirk, these two played for the first time on Saturday, a convincing win for the Cowboys on its home floor, 78-67, setting up an interesting rematch on a neutral floor with both teams playing for their postseason viability. 

Who has the edge in Kansas City? Here’s our betting preview

Cincinnati vs. Oklahoma State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Cincinnati: -5.5 (-118)
• Oklahoma State: +5.5 (-104)

Moneyline

• Cincinnati: -250
• Oklahoma State: +202

Total: 138.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Cincinnati vs. Oklahoma State How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, March 11
• Game Time: 12:30 PM EST
• Venue: T-Mobile Center
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN+
• Cincinnati Record: 24-9
• Oklahoma State Record: 15-16

Cincinnati vs. Oklahoma State Key Players to Watch

Cincinnati

Jizzle James: James had a team high 17 points on Saturday, but it was far from efficient as he shot 28% from the field on 21 field goal attempts. On the season, James has struggled to shoot the ball well, posting a 44% effective field goal percentage, but he is one of the lone threats to create his own shots for a limited Cincy offense, posting the second highest shot percentage in Big 12 play (32.8%)

Oklahoma State

Abou Ousmane: The Xavier transfer has been integral to the team’s success this season on both ends. There’s a clear trend between the team winning and the big man succeeding as he has scored 24 and 25 points, respectively, in the team’s two most recent wins. In what’s been a poor season for the Pokes, Ousmane has been one of the bright points. 

Cincinnati vs. Oklahoma State Prediction and Pick

Cincinnati has been a strong bet to the under all season, going under in 21 of 31 games this season. 

The team has a stifling defense under Wes Miller, led by elite rim protection from the likes of big man Aziz Bandaogo. That’s impactful against the Pokes, who are outside the top 30 in effective field goal percentage. 

It’s worth noting in the Saturday matchup the limited Oklahoma State offense made seven-of-nine 3-point shots in the victory. I believe that is not very replicable on a neutral floor against a sturdy Cincinnati offense. 

However, I can’t trust Cincinnati’s offense to do much scoring either. The Bearcats are last in Big 12 play in free throw rate as the team is limited at creating efficient looks, posting a national average effective field goal percentage this season with a bottom 100 adjusted tempo. 

When favored, Cincy has been a reliable under bet, going under in 16 of 22 games when laying points. 

I’ll stick with what’s worked all season at a similar number to Saturday’s matchup that featured outlier shot making. 

PICK: UNDER 138.5 (-110, Available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Create a new FanDuel Sportsbook account, and you can get $150 in bonus bets if you win your first $5 wager. Download the FanDuel app and deposit a minimum of $5 to claim your new-user bonus today.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.