Clemson vs. North Carolina Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 6

Clemson is favored on the road in Week 6.

The Clemson Tigers and quarterback Cade Klubnik are 0-4 against the spread this season. / GREENVILLE NEWS-USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

An intriguing ACC matchup takes place at noon on Saturday, Oct. 4 in college football, as the North Carolina Tar Heels, led by head coach Bill Belichick, take on the Clemson Tigers and Cade Klubnik, who have gotten off to a brutal start in 2025.

A College Football Playoff contender heading into 2025, the Tigers have dropped three of their first four games, only beating Troy (and failing to cover) this season. 

Clemson’s playoff hopes are likely already done, but it is favored by two touchdowns in Week 6 against a UNC team that has struggled against any real competition in 2025. The Tar Heels have wins over Charlotte and Richmond, but they scored a combined 23 points in losses to TCU and UCF.

It’s been a rough 2025 season for both programs, and one has to wonder how long the Belichick experiment will last in UNC if the team underperforms throughout the entire campaign.

Here’s a breakdown of Saturday’s matchup, including the latest odds, players to watch and my game prediction. 

Clemson vs. North Carolina Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Clemson -14 (-112)
• North Carolina +14 (-108)

Moneyline

• Clemson: -625
• North Carolina: +455

Total

• 45.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Clemson vs. North Carolina How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, Oct. 4
• Time: 12:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Kenan Stadium 
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Clemson record: 1-3
• North Carolina record: 2-2 

Clemson vs. North Carolina Key Player to Watch

Cade Klubnik, Quarterback, Clemson

Going into the 2025 season, Klubnik was a serious contender to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. That has completely changed over the course of the first four weeks of the season, and one has to wonder if Klubnik would even be a Day 2 pick with how poorly he’s played in 2025.

The senior has completed just 60.1 percent of his passes for 996 yards in four games, and he’s thrown for six scores and four picks. Klubnik’s last game may have been his best of the season, as he completed 37 of his 60 pass attempts for 363 yards and three scores (one pick) in a loss to Syracuse. 

Simply put, the star quarterback has to be a lot better if the Tigers want to make any kind of run in the ACC to close out this season. 

Clemson vs. North Carolina Prediction and Pick

Even against a subpar North Carolina team, there is just no way that I can lay double digits with the Tigers given how poorly they’ve started the 2025 season.

Clemson has yet to cover the spread in a single game this season, and it has losses by 13 (to Syracuse) and three (to Georgia Tech) who were unranked when the teams faced off. 

Now, I also don’t love betting UNC to cover the 14 points in this game, as it has scored just 23 points against quality programs this season, losing those games by 34 and 25 points.

So, I’m looking to the total – specifically the UNDER – in this afternoon battle in Chapel Hill.

This season, Clemson ranks 91st in EPA/Play on offense, and Klubnik (as I mentioned above) has not looked like an NFL prospect through four games. North Carolina’s offense hasn’t been any better, ranking 127th in EPA/Play and 109th in offensive success rate.

Both of these programs have serviceable defenses, as Clemson is 68th in EPA/Play while the Tar Heels are 74th. However, the best part of Clemson’s defense (45th in EPA/Rush) happens to be facing the best part of Carolina’s offense (90th in EPA/Rush). So, I imagine that the Tar Heels have a hard time moving the ball at all in this game.

Since UNC put up just 14 points against TCU and nine against UCF, I think we’ll have a lot of breathing room when it comes to this total on Saturday.

Until the Clemson offense shows that it can be explosive around Klubnik, I think the UNDER is the play. The Tigers have combined for 45 or fewer points in three of their four games in 2025. 

Pick: UNDER 45.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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