Clippers vs. Nuggets Playoff Odds: Series Prediction, Odds, Analysis and Best Bet

Can the Clippers upset Denver in the first round?

Can the Clippers upset Denver in the first round? / Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

The Los Angeles Clippers put together a huge run to end the regular season, culminating with Sunday’s overtime win against the Golden State Warriors to earn the No. 5 seed in the Western Conference?

The Clippers reward for such a finish? A first-round playoff matchup with Nikola Jokic – the best player in the world.

The Denver Nuggets are the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference, and they closed out the regular season strong even though they fired head coach Michael Malone and general manager Calvin Booth with just three games left. 

Now, Denver is favored to win this series, but there are a ton of questions. Can the Nuggets hold up on defense against this Clippers attack? Will Jamal Murray (hamstring) remain healthy enough for an already thin Denver roster?

On the Clippers side, this is all about Kawhi Leonard and his health, as he’s gone down in the playoffs in multiple runs in the last five seasons.

Here’s a complete breakdown of this series, including the odds, trends to watch and my prediction for Nuggets vs. Clippers. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Clippers vs. Nuggets Series Odds

• Clippers: +120
• Nuggets: -145

Clippers vs. Nuggets Correct Score Odds

• Nuggets in 7: +320
• Clippers in 6: +380
• Nuggets in 5: +500
• Nuggets in 6: +550
• Clippers in 7: +650
• Clippers in 5: +900
• Nuggets in 4: +1000
• Clippers in 4: +1400

Clippers vs. Nuggets Trends to Watch

Los Angeles Clippers

Nobody closed the season stronger than the Clippers, as they posted an NBA-best +14.1 net rating over their last 10 games.

After the All-Star break, Los Angeles was 19-9 and had the No. 4 net rating in the league, helping it surge from a play-in team to a top-five seed in the West. 

The Kawhi numbers are what you’d expect. Los Angeles is 26-11 when the two-time Finals MVP plays, and an insane +12.7 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the floor. That would be tied with the Oklahoma City Thunder for the best net rating in the NBA.

The Clippers are also an elite defensive team under Tyronn Lue, ranking third in the NBA in defensive rating this season.

When it comes to game-to-game trends, the Clippers are just 19-22 against the spread on the road, but at home they are the best bet in the league. The Clippers finished the regular season with a 28-13 against the spread record at home (only OKC was better), and they were an NBA-best 20-8 ATS when favored at Intuit Dome.  

Denver Nuggets

There is a massive concern for Denver on the defensive end, as it was just 23rd in the NBA in defensive rating after the All-Star break. In addition to that, the Nuggets attempt the fewest 3-point shots per game in the league, and while they have an efficient offense (No. 4 in offensive rating), it does make it tougher for them when they fall behind.

Jokic is the best player in the world, and he makes up for a lot of mistakes, but this Denver team was just 17-14 without Aaron Gordon and 9-6 without Jamal Murray. Both players have been banged up this season, and if one goes down, Denver does not have the bench pieces to truly replace them.

The Nuggets also were just 19th in the league in net rating after the All-Star break. There’s a reason they fired Michael Malone, but those issues – and the roster flaws – won’t just evaporate over a three-game period.

For game-to-game trends, there’s a few to watch:

• Denver is just 16-19-1 against the spread when favored at home
• Denver is 9-7 against the spread as a road underdog
• The OVER is 49-33 in Denver’s games this season – the third-best OVER mark in the NBA

Clippers vs. Nuggets Prediction and Pick

I am surprised to see the Clippers as underdogs in this series, but there are always the James Harden playoff demons and the Kawhi injury worries that can scare bettors away from Los Angeles.

And while those are possible, I’m still buying the Clips to upset Denver.

The Nuggets have some major issues on the defensive end of the floor (23rd in defensive rating since the break, 21st overall), and these teams split the season series even though Kawhi did not play in the two meetings that Los Angeles won.

Jokic is going to make this series tough because of how he can single-handedly win Denver games, but the Clippers have been so dominant at home, I would not be shocked if they are able to push this to seven games.

The Murray hamstring injury is a massive concern, and Denver doesn’t have nearly as much depth as the Clippers. Instead, it needs all of its top players to be firing night in and night out. 

Los Angeles’ finish to the season wasn’t a fluke, and the numbers with Kawhi on the floor speak for themselves. I thought this series should be set as a pick’em – especially with all the turmoil in Denver over the last week of the regular season – so I’ll gladly take the Clippers at +120 to advance. 

Best Bet: Clippers to win the series (+120 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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