College Football Upset Picks for Week 10 (NC State Will Hand Georgia Tech Its First Loss)

Iain MacMillan | Oct 29, 2025

NC State is a home underdog against Georgia Tech in Week 10 college football action. / Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Upset bettors were happy last week, especially those who read my upset picks article, cashing in on both Memphis at +180 and BYU at +130.

Let's try to keep the good times rolling this week as I once again have three upset bets for Week 10 of the 2025 college football season that I'm ready to give the people, including NC State to hand Georgia Tech its first loss of the season. Let's dive into them.

CFB Week 10 Upset Picks

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

• Vanderbilt +118 vs. Texas
• Oklahoma +130 vs. Tennessee
• NC State +180 vs. Georgia Tech

Vanderbilt +118 vs. Texas

Vanderbilt still isn't getting the respect it deserves. This Commodores team ranks 11th in the country in net success rate at +9.8%, which is well above Texas, which comes in at 79th in that state at just +0.7%. It's time for us as bettors to recognize this Longhorns team simply didn't turn out as advertised, and we should be betting on their games with that thought in mind.

Oklahoma +130 vs. Tennessee

This is a game between one of the best defenses in the country and one of the worst, yet it's the team with the better defense that's getting three points. Oklahoma enters this week ranking first in adjusted opponent EPA per play and second in opponent yards per play, allowing just 4.05 yards per snap. Meanwhile, the Tennessee defense ranks 125th in adjusted opponent EPA per play and 75th in opponent yards per play, allowing 5.78 yards per snap. I'll bet on Oklahoma bouncing back with an upset win against the Vols.

NC State +180 vs. Georgia Tech

The regression is going to come soon for Georgia Tech. Apologies to fans of the Yellow Jackets, but their underlying metrics simply don't add up. For example, Georgia Tech comes into this week ranking 65th in adjusted EPA per play and 49th in Net Success Rate. NC State ranks 51st and 25th in those two respective metrics. The key to beating Georgia Tech is stopping the run, and NC State has done a solid job of doing that this season, allowing 4.4 yards per carry and ranking 10th in opponent rush success rate. Not only do the Wolfpack have overall better metrics, but NC State also has a stylistic advantage based on its run defense.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!