College Football Upset Picks for Week 13 (Arkansas Will Upset Texas in SEC Showdown)

Iain MacMillan | Nov 19, 2025

Bet on Arkansas to upset Texas in college football Week 13 action. / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

I gave you the Oklahoma Sooners to upset the Alabama Crimson Tide in last week's edition of my upset picks article. I'm going to try to keep the momentum going in Week 13, and I'm once again targeting three underdogs to win their game outright.

Let's take a look at my top upset picks for the penultimate pick of the regular season.

CFB Week 13 Upset Picks

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Arkansas +280 vs. Texas
• Pittsburgh +112 vs. Georgia Tech
• Louisville +116 vs. SMU

Arkansas +280 vs. Texas

The Arkansas offense is good enough to hang with any team in the offense, and I think the Razorbacks are live to win this game against a deflated Texas team whose playoff odds were dashed with a blowout loss to Georgia last week. Arkansas is averaging 6.9 yards per play this season, which is 1.4 more yards per play than Texas. The Razorbacks' defense will have to step up to win this game, but their offense alone makes them worth a shot at +280.

Pittsburgh +112 vs. Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech is a run-first team, but Pittsburgh has one of the best run defenses in the country. They’re eighth in opponent yards per carry, allowing just 2.8 yards per rush. They’re also sixth in opponent rush EPA and third in opponent rush success rate. That is going to make for a long day for the Georgia Tech offense.

Things get even more difficult for Georgia Tech when you consider the Panthers' offense. Pittsburgh is a pass-first team, but Georgia Tech’s defense is 93rd in opponent yards per pass attempt (7.7) and 121st in opponent EPA per dropback. I'll back Pittsburgh as a slight road underdog.

Louisville +116 vs. SMU

Don't let their two recent losses fool you, this Louisville Cardinals team is still one of the best teams the ACC has to offer. The Cardinals enter Week 13 ranking 23rd in the country in adjusted net EPA per play, while the Mustangs rank 34th in that metric. Expect both quarterbacks in this game to have a heavy workload. SMU and Louisville rank 19th and 21st in passing play percentage, with over 54% of their plays being pass plays. That's great news for the Cardinals, who have the far superior pass defense. Louisville ranks 12th in opponent dropback EPA, while SMU ranks 50th in that metric.
The stylistic advantage goes to the Cardinals, so I'll take the plus-money with Louisville in this ACC showdown.

---

With the latest FanDuel promo code new-user offer, you can place a $5 wager and win $150 in bonus bets. Create your new FanDuel account today to lock in this impressive welcome offer from one of the top sportsbooks in the nation.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!