College Football Upset Picks for Week 6 (Seminoles Will Win Battle of Florida vs. Hurricanes)

Iain MacMillan | Oct 1, 2025

Bet on Florida State to rebound with an upset win against Miami. / Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

The college football season marches on, and we have plenty of betting opportunities. If you like to be aggressive with your bets, like I do, and you're seeking some big upset picks for Saturday's action, you're in the right place.

I'm locked in on three teams to potentially pull off an upset on Saturday, let's dive into them.

College Football Week 6 Upset Picks

• Purdue +300 vs. Illinois via BetMGM
• UCF +170 vs. Kansas via BetMGM
• Florida State +164 vs. Miami via DraftKings

Purdue +300 vs. Illinois

I'm still not sold on Illinois after its win against USC in Week 5. The Fighting Illini are still 84th in the country in adjusted EPA this season, which is two spots below the Boilermakers, who come in at 82nd. Purdue also throws the ball at the 18th-highest rate in the country, throwing the ball on 57.21% of their plays. In this game, they'll take on an Illinois defense that ranks 95th in the country in opponent dropback EPA.

This game will be closer than the spread indicates and Purdue has a chance to pull off the upset.

UCF +170 vs. Kansas

The advanced metrics love the UCF Knights. They rank 28th in the country in adjusted EPA per play while also sporting a Net Yards per Play of +2.65. Both those marks are above the Kansas Jayhawks, who rank 38th in adjusted EPA per play with a Net Yards per Play of +2.19. The Jayhawks have already lost two games this season, and I wouldn't be shocked to see them suffer a fourth loss in this one.

Florida State +164 vs. Miami

This game is the ultimate buy-low/sell-high spot. Florida State is coming off a tough loss against Virginia in Week 5, while Miami is undefeated on the season, stringing together a couple of impressive victories. The advanced metrics still love Florida State, despite the loss, ranking sixth in adjusted EPA per play with a Net Yards per Play number of +2.04. Meanwhile, the Miami Hurricanes rank 11th in adjusted EPA per play with a Net Yards Per Play of +2.04. The Seminoles are live to win this battle of Florida.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!