College Football Week 4 Best Bets (Bet a Late Night Over in Michigan State vs. USC)

Iain MacMillan | Sep 19, 2025

Bet the OVER on Saturday night between USC and Michigan State. / Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

The college football season marches on, and while Week 4 isn't a loaded slate of games with plenty of teams on BYE, there are still plenty of betting opportunities for us to take advantage of.

I have a little bit of everything for college football bettors this weekend, including a bet on a favorite, an underdog, and a total bet. Let's dive into them.

College Football Week 4 Best Bets

• Ole Miss -12.5 (-110) vs. Tulane via Caesars
• Illinois +195 vs. Indiana via DraftKings
• Michigan State vs. USC OVER 55.5 (-115) via FanDuel

Ole Miss -12.5 (-110) vs. Tulane

In this week's edition of First to Forde, I broke down why I'm willing to lay the points with Ole Miss:

I’m not buying what Tulane is selling, which is that the Green Wave is the best Group of Five team in the country. The advanced numbers don’t love them, as they rank 41st in adjusted EPA while sporting a Net Yards per Play of just +0.34 and a success rate of -2.6%. Ole Miss outranks the Green Wave in almost every metric, and I think they’ll show the country Tulane isn’t on the Rebels’ level on Saturday.

Illinois +195 vs. Indiana

Illinois is an interesting underdog pick if you want to bet on an upset this week. The Fighting Illini rank 13th in the country in adjusted EPA per play, while Indiana comes in at 20th. Neither team has had a tough schedule to start the year, but the Illinois 45-19 win against Duke was the most impressive of the bunch.

Michigan State vs. USC OVER 55.5 (-115)

USC has looked unbelievable offensively to start the season. The Trojans are averaging 9.5 yards per play, which is 0.6 points more than the next-best college football team. They're also leading the country in points per game, averaging 55.0, which is exactly what the overall total in this game is. Michigan State has also been solid offensively, averaging 32.5 points per game. This has all the makings of a high-scoring affair, and late-night West Coast games are meant for OVER bets. Let's sit back and root for points in this one.

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