Commanders vs. Dolphins Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 11 (High-Scoring Game?)

Who will win this international matchup?

The Miami Dolphins and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa are favored in Week 11. / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

The Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins are both way out of the playoff picture in the NFL heading into Week 11’s international matchup in Madrid, Spain.

Miami is a slight favorite in this matchup after it knocked off the Buffalo Bills in Week 10 to move to 3-7 in the 2025 season. Tua Tagovailoa and company have struggled at times this season, but the offense was humming against Buffalo and now gets to face a Washington team that ranks 31st in points allowed and dead last in yards per play allowed this season.

Washington has lost five games in a row, and it seems to be in a lost season with Jayden Daniels missing time with multiple injuries. He’s currently nursing an elbow injury that he suffered in a blowout loss to Seattle in Week 9.

Can Miami inch closer to .500 with a win as the “home team” in this matchup? 

All season long, the SI Betting team is predicting the final score of every NFL game as a way to help bettors decide on their spread and total bets. 

Here’s a breakdown of my prediction for this international matchup in NFL Week 11. 

Commanders vs. Dolphins Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Commanders +2.5 (-105)
• Dolphins -2.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• Commanders: +124
• Dolphins: -148

Total

• 47.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

There has been a little line movement in this game, as the Dolphins opened as 1.5-point favorites and are now favored by 2.5 in Madrid. 

With Jayden Daniels (elbow) banged up, the Commanders have fallen way back in the odds to win the Super Bowl and aren’t expected to snap their five-game losing streak. It’s worth noting that Washington is just 1-4 away from home this season. 

Commanders vs. Dolphins Final Score Prediction

Earlier this week, SI’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared his pick for this game in his Road to 272 column, and he’s betting the OVER between these two subpar defenses: 

I'll bet the OVER in the final European game of the season. I'm not looking too far into the Dolphins' strong defensive performance against the Bills last week. At the end of the day, these have been two of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Dolphins are 27th and the Commanders are 30th in opponent EPA per play. They're also both in the bottom 10 in defensive DVOA and opponent success rate.

Even with Jayden Daniels out of the lineup for the Commanders, I expect both offenses to be able to move the ball enough in this game to cash the OVER.

While MacMillan’s prediction doesn’t give us a side, I do agree with him that this could be a high-scoring game. Washington has allowed the second-most points in the NFL this season while Miami has allowed the sixth-most, and the OVER has hit in six of Miami’s games and five of Washington’s games. 

As for a side, I lean with the Dolphins to win this matchup. 

Washington has been in a tailspin, losing five games in a row while allowing 28 or more points in four straight weeks. The Dolphins have been up and down all season, but they have quality wins over Atlanta and Buffalo in recent weeks. 

I think Mike McDaniel’s club moves to 4-7 this season with a victory in Madrid.  

Final Score Prediction: Dolphins 30, Commanders 22

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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