Commanders vs. Eagles Best NFL Prop Bets for NFC Championship Game (Fade Jake Elliott)

Iain MacMillan | Jan 25, 2025

Bet against Jake Elliott in the NFC Championship / Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

The Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles will kick off Championship Sunday in what will be a high-stakes rubber match between two NFC East teams.

You can check out the latest odds for the game, including my best bet, in my betting preview, but in this article, we're going to focus on the prop market. I have three props locked in, including one against the Eagles struggling kicker, Jake Elliott.

Commanders vs. Eagles Player Props

• Jayden Daniels OVER 21.5 Completions (+100) via BetMGM
• Saquon Barkley UNDER 129.5 Rush Yards (-118) via BetMGM
• Jake Elliott UNDER 1.5 Field Goals (-140) via Caesars

Jayden Daniels OVER 21.5 Completions (+100)

Jayden Daniels to record 22+ completions is my favorite prop bet for the Commanders. I broke it down in this week's edition of the "Road to Super Bowl 59":

No matter how you think this game is going to go, almost all paths lead to Jayden Daniels racking up completions in this game. The only outcome I see that could hurt this prop is if the Commanders win in a blowout, leading to the Commanders sticking to the run game in the second half.

If the Eagles, who are significant favorites, take an early lead, the Commanders will have to throw the ball to play catch-up. If it's a close game, the Commanders are likely going to stick to their bread and butter and put the ball in their star rookie's hands. Daniels has gone over this number in eight straight games if you take away Week 18 against the Cowboys when he was taken out of the game in the second half to keep him rested.

Saquon Barkley UNDER 129.5 Rush Yards (-118)

In the "Road to Super Bowl 59," I broke down why I'm going to do the unthinkable and fade Saquon Barkley:

It seems like blasphemy to bet the UNDER on a Saquon Barkley rushing yards total, but as bettors, we need to think about these wagers in terms of probability and this number has gotten out of control. I don't remember if I've ever seen a player have a rushing yards total this high so while I do think Barkley will have a good performance, getting more than 127 yards on the ground has a less than 50% chance of happening.

The Eagles have racked up wins by sticking to their ground game, getting an early lead, and then riding their run game until the final whistle. I don't think that strategy is going to work against an elite offense like the Commanders. Instead, they're going to have to go to the air to try to keep pace with Jayden Daniels and Co.

Jake Elliott UNDER 1.5 Field Goals (-140)

Jake Elliott has been abysmal for the Eagles and almost cost them their divisional round win by missing two extra points. He's now just hit 77.8% of his field goals this season and the Eagles clearly don't have much faith in him. If that's true, it may lead them to go for it on fourth down more often than not in the NFC Championship.

It's also worth noting the Commanders rank 21st in red zone defense, allowing teams to score a touchdown on 59.68% of of red zone trips against them. That may lead to the Eagles not having to call Elliott's number to kick a field goal more than once in this showdown.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!