Commanders vs. Falcons Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 4

Bijan Robinson and the Falcons hope to bounce back at home in Week 4.

Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson will be looking to find the end zone again in Week 4. / Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

The Atlanta Falcons return home to host the Washington Commanders on Sunday afternoon.

The Falcons are coming off a horrendous 30-0 loss in Carolina, while Washington had a commanding win over the Raiders in Week 3.

The oddsmakers are expecting a close game in Atlanta with Washington as slight road favorites in this one.

Can Atlanta bounce back at home or will Washington keep rolling?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, a player to watch, betting trends and my prediction for this matchup in Week 4. 

Commanders vs. Falcons Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Commanders -3 (+100)
• Falcons +3 (-120)

Moneyline

• Commanders: -155
• Falcons: +130

Total

• 45.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Commanders vs. Falcons How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, September 28
• Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
• Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): CBS
• Commanders record: 2-1
• Falcons record: 1-2

Commanders vs. Falcons Betting Trends

• The Commanders are 2-1 against the spread this season.
• The Falcons are 1-2 against the spread this season.
• The UNDER is 2-1 in the Commanders' games this season.
• The UNDER is 3-0 in the Falcons' games this season.
• The Commanders are 0-1 against the spread on the road this season.
• The Falcons are 0-1 against the spread at home this season.

Commanders vs. Falcons Injury Reports

Commanders Injury Report

• TBA

Falcons Injury Report

• TBA

Commanders vs. Falcons Key Player to Watch

Bijan Robinson, Running Back, Atlanta Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons may have a quarterback controversy brewing after Kirk Cousins entered the game in Week 3, but Raheem Morris assured reporters that Michael Penix Jr. is still the starter. Nevertheless, the Falcons are going to go as Bijan Robinson does.

The running back finished the 2024 season as the league’s third-best rusher, racking up 1,456 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground. He added another 431 yards on 61 catches to get up near the 2,000-yard mark overall.

This season, Robinson had a 143-yard showing against the Vikings sandwiched between just 24 yards on 12 carries in the season opener and 72 yards on 13 carries in Carolina.

The Commanders limited Ashton Jeanty to 63 yards on 17 carries last week, and Josh Jacobs’ yards per carry (84 yards on 23 carries) weren’t great the week before. This is going to be a matchup to watch with Robinson facing off against Washington’s run defense.

Commanders vs. Falcons Prediction and Pick

We’re going to keep it with Bijan Robinson here for our pick this week.

Robinson only had that one strong game, but that was good enough to help him to the fourth-most rushing yards this season. However, while the rest of the top 13 rushers in the league have found the end zone, Robinson has only scored a receiving touchdown.

The odds for Robinson to score a touchdown are usually pretty high, but we’re getting only -135 after the Falcons put up a goose egg last week. Take that and watch Robinson run for paydirt.

Pick: Bijan Robinson Anytime Touchdown (-135 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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