Creighton vs. Louisville Prediction, Odds, Key Players to Watch for NCAA Tournament First Round

Reed Wallach | Mar 19, 2025

Mar 14, 2025; Charlotte, NC, USA; Louisville Cardinals guard Chucky Hepburn (24) handles the ball against Clemson Tigers guard Jake Heidbreder (3) during the second half at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images / Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Creighton and Louisville officially start the NCAA Tournament on Thursday afternoon with Louisville playing in nearby Lexington as part of the South Region. 

The Cardinals had a resurgent season under head coach Pat Kelsey, using a spaced out offense as well as a stout ball pressure defense that led to a run to the ACC Tournament Finals. 

The team will face Creighton, who made the Big East Championship this season around big man Ryan Kalkbrenner as the team looks to jumpstart a NCAA Tournament run. 

This is expected to be a highly competitive affair in the No. 8/No. 9 seed game, but who has the advantage? We get you set below!

Creighton vs. Louisville Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Creighton: +2.5 (-110)
• Louisville: +2.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Creighton: +114
• Louisville: -137

Total: 145.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Creighton vs. Louisville How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, March 20
• Game Time: 12:15 PM EST
• Venue: Rupp Arena
• How to Watch (TV): CBS
• Creighton Record: 24-10
• Louisville Record: 27-7

Creighton vs. Louisville Key Players to Watch

Creighton

Ryan Kalkbrenner: The Creighton big man is one of the most effective two-way threats in college basketball. He’s an elite rim protector at 7’1” as the anchor of the Bluejays compact scheme while also bolstering deft touch around the rim and capable floor spacing as a 3-point threat. The senior is averaging 19 points and nearly nine rebounds on 65% shooting this season. 

Louisville

Chucky Hepburn: The Wisconsin transfer has been fantastic this season as one of the best on-ball defenders in the country at over two steals per game while averaging 16 points per game and nearly six assists. He’ll face a shaky ball handling unit in Creighton while looking to navigate the likes of Kalkbrenner on defense. 

Creighton vs. Louisville Prediction and Pick

Louisville is primed to advance out of the first round and cover the small point spread. 

The Cardinals defense is well rounded with disciplined rebounding and ball pressure that can give Creighton’s ball movement offense a ton of trouble. The Bluejays lack many players that can win in isolation situations, which is what Kelsey’s defense is built to do, allowing the 53rd lowest assist rate in the country. Creighton is sixth in assist rate and 10th in three-point rate, but Louisville funnels teams inside which can lead to far less efficient shots for the Bluejays motion offense. 

While the Bluejays are flush with shotmaking, the team is 24th in effective field goal percentage, the Cardinals defensive scheme can give the team fits. 

On the other side, I’ll trust Louisville to find answers against Creighton’s defense that has an anchor in Kalkbrenner, but can be had off the dribble, which can lead to open perimeter shots for the unit as the Bluejays perimeter defense has been vulnerable at times this season. 

The Cards are the more well rounded team, playing in nearby Lexington, and I’ll side with them to cover. 

PICK: Louisville -2.5 (-110, Available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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