Cubs vs. Marlins Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Monday, May 19

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Chicago Cubs-Miami Marlins matchup on Monday, May 19.

The Marlins are underdogs at home on Monday. / Rhona Wise-Imagn Images

The Chicago Cubs are rolling right now, winning three straight games to move to nine games over .500 in 2025.

Chicago has a two-game cushion atop the AL Central heading into Monday’s matchup with the struggling Miami Marlins. Miami has lost six of its last 10 games, although it did pick up a win on Sunday to move to 18-27 (last in the NL East) this season.

The Marlins have Edward Cabrera on the bump in this game against Chicago’s Ben Brown. Oddsmakers have set the Cubbies as road favorites, but Miami is 12-13 straight up at home in the 2025 season.

Can it pull off an upset tonight?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for this NL battle. 

Cubs vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line 

• Cubs -1.5 (-108)
• Marlins +1.5 (-112)

Moneyline

• Cubs: -180
• Marlins: +150

Total

• 8.5 (Over -120/Under +100)

Cubs vs. Marlins Probable Pitchers

• Chicago: Ben Brown (3-3, 4.75 ERA)
• Miami: Edward Cabrera (0-1, 5.52 ERA)

Cubs vs. Marlins How to Watch

• Date: Monday, May 19
• Time: 6:40 p.m. EST
• Venue: loanDepot park
• How to Watch (TV): FDSFL, MARQ
• Cubs record: 28-19
• Marlins record: 18-27

Cubs vs. Marlins Best MLB Prop Bets

Cubs Best MLB Prop Bet

• Pete Crow-Amstrong to Hit a Home Run (+500)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks – Daily Dinger – why PCA is worth a look on Monday night: 

Chicago Cubs star Pete Crow-Armstrong is having a great 2025 season, hitting 12 home runs while posting a .290/.325/.585 slash line for Chicago.

On Monday, I love the matchup for Crow-Armstrong, as he’s taking on the Miami Marlins and young starter Edward Cabrera. This season, Cabrera has struggled a bit, posting a 5.52 ERA while allowing five homers in six appearances. He also doesn’t have a great bullpen behind him, as the Marlins have a 4.59 bullpen ERA and have given up 22 homers in 2025.

That sets up well for Crow-Amstrong, who has been on fire in recent weeks. Over the last seven days, the Cubs star is hitting an insane .458 with a pair of homers. If you go back over the last two weeks, he’s .340 with three homers, and nine of his 12 home runs have come in the last 28 days.

This is a great price to get him at on Monday. 

Cubs vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick

These are the two best OVER teams in MLB, as the Cubs are 27-16-4 to the OVER while the Marlins are 27-18.

With this pitching matchup, I expect both offenses to thrive, especially the Cubs, who are fourth in OPS and second in runs scored in 2025.

The Marlins are shockingly not terrible offensively, ranking 17th in MLB in OPS this season.

Brown has made nine appearances in 2025, and the Cubs have combined for nine or more runs in six of them. While his Fielding Independent Pitching is much lower than his ERA, Brown still has given up at least three runs in five of his outings.

With Cabrera, his WHIP is the major concern. The righty has a 1.53 WHIP this season, and he posted a dreadful 7.23 ERA in four April outings.

Lastly, both of these clubs have bullpens that are in the bottom half in the league in ERA (Chicago is at 4.36 and Miami is at 4.59), so I doubt there are many shutdown innings after these starters exit.

The OVER trend between these squads is too strong to pass up on Monday night. 

Pick: OVER 8.5 (-120 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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