Cubs vs. Twins Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Thursday, July 10

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Chicago Cubs-Minnesota Twins series finale on Thursday afternoon.

The Chicago Cubs are 13-5 when pitcher Colin Rea is on the mound this season. / Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins are one win away from a sweep of the NL Central-leading Chicago Cubs on Thursday afternoon.

Minnesota has outscored the Cubbies 12-3 so far in this series, but it needs Chris Paddack (4.64 ERA) to pitch well on Thursday afternoon to complete the sweep.

The Cubs will counter with righty Colin Rea, who has alternated from the starting rotation to the bullpen in the 2025 season. 

While the Twins are still 13 games back of the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central, the Cubs have a lot to play for in their division race. Chicago is just 1.5 games up on the Milwaukee Brewers, and it would love a win before the weekend to keep some distance before a three-game set with the New York Yankees.

Let’s examine this matchup on Thursday, including the latest odds, player props to bet and my prediction. 

Cubs vs. Twins Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Cubs -1.5 (+136)
• Twins +1.5 (-167)

Moneyline

• Cubs: -120
• Twins: -102

Total

• 9.5 (Over -113/Under -108)

Cubs vs. Twins Probable Pitchers

• Chicago: Chris Paddack (3-7, 4.64 ERA)
• Minnesota: Colin Rea (6-3, 4.13 ERA)

Cubs vs. Twins How to Watch 

• Date: Thursday, July 10
• Time: 1:10 p.m. EST
• Venue: Target Field
• How to Watch (TV): MLB Network
• Cubs record: 54-38
• Twins record: 45-47

Cubs vs. Twins Best MLB Prop Bet

Twins Best MLB Prop Bet

• Trevor Larnach to Hit a Home Run (+400)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks – Daily Dinger – why Larnach is undervalued at this price: 

Minnesota Twins outfielder Trevor Larnach has a great matchup on Thursday as Minnesota aims to sweep the Chicago Cubs.

The Cubs have Colin Rea on the mound in this one, and he’s struggled with the long ball all season despite alternating from a bullpen role to a starting role. Rea has given up 15 home runs in 18 appearances, including seven in his last five starts.

That sets up well for Larnach, who has crushed right-handed pitching in 2025. The Twins outfielder has a .275/.345/.462 slash line against righties with 11 home runs. He’s hit 12 long balls on the season, so he’s really only worth betting on against right-handed pitching.

Plus, Larnach is hitting .375 over the last week with a .974 OPS. Bettors could do a lot worse than betting on the Twins slugger at +400 on Thursday afternoon. 

Cubs vs. Twins Prediction and Pick

The Cubs are slight favorites in this series finale, and I believe they are rightful favorites given the pitching matchup.

While Rea hasn’t been lights out for Chicago in the 2025 season, the team is 13-5 in the 18 games that he’s pitched in, including a 10-4 record in games that he’s started.

Paddack, on the other hand, has led the Twins to a 5-13 record in his 18 outings in 2025, and he’s seen his ERA skyrocket since the start of June. After lowering his season-long mark to 3.58 after his first start last month, Paddack has seen it jump all the way to 4.64, posting a 5.73 ERA in his last seven starts. 

That’s not going to cut it against a Chicago offense that still ranks third in OPS and second in runs scored this season despite a rough showing in the first two games of this series. 

I think the Cubs avoid the sweep on Thursday afternoon. 

Pick: Cubs Moneyline (-120 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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