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Diamondbacks vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Wednesday, July 9

Sean Treppedi

After splitting the series at one game apiece on Tuesday, the Padres are favorited to take Wednesday's matchup against the Diamondbacks.
After splitting the series at one game apiece on Tuesday, the Padres are favorited to take Wednesday's matchup against the Diamondbacks. / David Frerker-Imagn Images
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The Padres tied up the four-game series with the Diamondbacks on Tuesday as Luis Arraez broke a scoreless tie with a solo shot to open the seventh for a 1-0 win. 

Arizona is pegged as the favorite as they send Brandon Pfaadt (8-6, 5.42 ERA) to the mound on Wednesday. He has struggled with consistency all season for Arizona and is coming off a six-inning outing in which he allowed four earned runs to the Giants.

Dylan Cease (3-8, 4.62 ERA) hasn’t found much rhythm either, giving up four earned runs in each of his last two starts and continuing to battle through uneven performances.

Let’s break things down with a prop and prediction.

Diamondbacks vs. Padres Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

  • Diamondbacks +1.5 (-192)
  • Padres -1.5 (+158)

Moneyline

  • Diamondbacks (+120)
  • Padres (-142)

Total

  • Over 7.5 (-122)
  • Under 7.5 (+100)

Diamondbacks vs. Padres Probable Pitchers

  • Diamondbacks: Brandon Pfaadt (8-6, 5.42 ERA)
  • Padres: Dylan Cease (3-8, 4.62 ERA)

Diamondbacks vs. Padres How to Watch

  • Date: Wednesday, July 9, 2025
  • Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
  • Venue: Petco Park
  • How to Watch (TV): Padres TV Network, Dbacks.TV
  • Diamondbacks Record: 45-47
  • Padres Record: 49-42

Diamondbacks vs. Padres Best MLB Prop Bet

In SI’s Daily Dingers write-up by Iain MacMillan, he suggested Jake Cronenworth to go long on Wednesday. I’m supporting this pick given his analysis that Pfaadt has been vulnerable to the long ball this season, ranking 20th in home runs allowed per nine innings (1.6), while Arizona’s bullpen has also struggled, giving up the fourth-most homers per nine at 1.3. With those trends in mind, Cronenworth could be a strong home run candidate, as he enters the game with eight homers and a .405 slugging percentage.

Diamondbacks vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

Cease has performed reliably inside Petco Park, posting a 2.76 ERA there. Meanwhile, Pfaadt has been struggling mightily on the road, surrendering 10 earned runs in 16 innings across his last three starts, and his 6.60 road ERA and 6.46 xERA highlight more concerning truths. The bullpen contrast is where this really reflects value on San Diego; the Padres are No. 2 overall (3.27 ERA) while the Diamondbacks are one of the game’s worst (5.03 ERA). The Diamondbacks’ ability to hit homers has been countered by Petco’s pitcher-friendly environment anyway, so in a matchup where neither starter presents lots of faith, everything else points to San Diego.

Pick: Padres (-142 at FanDuel)

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Sean Treppedi
SEAN TREPPEDI

Sean is a writer for Sports Illustrated Betting. He has written and edited sports betting and sports news editorial for the New York Post, Newsweek, Action Network, Philadelphia Inquirer, Chicago Tribune, and Athlon Sports. Sean lives in the New York City area and primarily focuses on pinpointing market value across the NFL, MLB, NHL, and college football.

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