Dodgers vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Wednesday, June 11

Who will win the series finale between these NL West powerhouses?

San Diego Padres starting pitcher Randy Vasquez is a player to fade in the prop market. / David Frerker-Imagn Images

The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres will play the rubber match of a three-game set on Wednesday afternoon, and oddsmakers have set Los Angeles as a road favorite.

L.A. has a one-game lead on the Padres in the NL West division, but the San Francisco Giants (0.5 games back) have made a serious run for the top spot during a six-game winning streak.

So, both of these teams would love a win in this series finale to keep pace in the division.

Los Angeles will send Justin Wrobleski (7.20 ERA) to the mound for the fourth time this season against Randy Vasquez, who has a 3.69 ERA for the Padres in 2025.

Let’s dive into the odds, players to watch in the prop market, and my prediction for Wednesday’s rubber match.  

Dodgers vs. Padres Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Dodgers -1.5 (+108)
• Padres +1.5 (-131)

Moneyline

• Dodgers: -149
• Padres: +123

Total

• 10 (Over -103/Under -118)

Dodgers vs. Padres Probable Pitchers

• Los Angeles: Justin Wrobleski (1-2, 7.20 ERA)
• San Diego: Randy Vasquez (3-4, 3.69 ERA)

Dodgers vs. Padres How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, June 11
• Time: 4:10 p.m. EST
• Venue: Petco Park
• How to Watch (TV): SDPA, SportsNet LA
• Dodgers record: 40-28
• Padres record: 38-28

Dodgers vs. Padres Best MLB Prop Bets

Padres Best MLB Prop Bet

• Randy Vasquez UNDER 2.5 Strikeouts (+135)

Randy Vasquez ranks in just the second percentile in strikeout percentage and the third percentile in whiff percentage this season, striking out 37 batters in 63.1 innings of work.

I have a hard time buying him in this market against an elite Dodgers offense that could chase him from this game early on Wednesday. Vasquez has failed to clear 2.5 K’s in six starts in 2025, and he has three or fewer punchouts in nine of his 13 outings.

I’m expecting him to struggle to force swings and misses against this vaunted Dodgers lineup. 

Dodgers vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

Could this game be another high-scoring affair in this series?

I shared in today’s MLB Best Bets column for SI Betting why I think both offenses will thrive on June 11:

The Dodgers and Padres have combined for 15 and 12 runs in the first two games of this series, but Wednesday’s pitching matchup may be the worst one in this matchup.

Los Angeles has youngster Justin Wrobleski (7.20 ERA) on the mound for this matchup against San Diego’s Randy Vasquez, who ranks in the fifth percentile in expected ERA this season (5.84).

Los Angeles is No. 2 in MLB in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), and it enters this game with the most runs scored by any team in MLB. I expect the Dodgers to get to Vasquez, who has been due for regression all season even though he has a 3.69 ERA. 

Vasquez has a 1.45 WHIP and a FIP north of 5.00 in the 2025 campaign. 

With Wrobleski allowing 12 runs in his first 15.0 innings of work this season, I think we could see a high-scoring affair once again in this series finale. 

Pick: OVER 10 (-103 at DraftKings)

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Are you new to DraftKings? Sign up today and place a $5 bet to earn $300 in bonus bets if you win your initial bet. DraftKings will issue 12 $25 bonus bets.