Duke vs. California Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 6

Duke is a road favorite in Week 6.

The Duke Blue Devils and quarterback Darian Mensah are favored on Saturday. / Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

The Duke Blue Devils are looking to move to 4-2 in the 2025 season when they hit the road for an ACC matchup with the California Golden Bears (4-1) on Saturday night.

Cal is coming off a four-point win over Boston College, but it was shut out in Week 4 by San Diego State, a bit of a concerning sign for a team that is 99th in the country in EPA/Play on offense.

As a result, oddsmakers have set the Blue Devils as road favorites in Week 6. 

Duke has losses to Tulane and Illinois this season, but it has won back-to-back ACC games to get back over .500 ahead of this clash.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, a key player to watch and my prediction for Duke-Cal on Saturday night. 

Duke vs. California Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Duke -3 (-108) 
• Cal +3 (-112)

Moneyline

• Duke: -148
• Cal: +124

Total

• 55.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Duke vs. California How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, Oct. 4
• Time: 10:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: California Memorial Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Duke record: 3-2
• California record: 4-1 

Duke vs. California Key Player to Watch

Darian Mensah, Quarterback, Duke

One of the best passers in the ACC, Mensah leads the conference in completions (121), passing yards (1,573) and passing touchdowns (13) while completing 69.1 percent of his passes.

Mensah has at least 268 passing yards in every game this season, but he’s taking on a Cal defense that is 22nd in the country in EPA/Pass. The Golden Bears have been a little more susceptible to allowing yards on the ground, ranking 79th in EPA/Rush while allowing 3.9 yards per carry.

Still, it’s hard to see Duke turning away from an offense that is top-20 in the country in EPA/Pass and is averaging 319 passing yards per game. 

Duke vs. California Prediction and Pick

These teams are polar opposites, as Duke has thrived on offense (19th in EPA/Play) while Cal has thrived on defense (22nd in EPA/Play). On the other side, both teams rank outside the top 90 in EPA/Play.

So, which units do we trust on Saturday night? 

Duke has faced a tough schedule, losing to a ranked Illinois team in Week 2 and Tulane in Week 3, but it’s coming off back-to-back ACC wins, including a 38-3 win over a Syracuse team that beat Clemson earlier this season.

Cal, on the other hand, was shut out by San Diego State 107th in ESPN’s Strength of Schedule metric. Duke ranks 79th. 

Mensah has the edge at quarterback over Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who has the most attempts in the ACC but has been picked four times and is barely completing 60 percent of his passes. 

Instead of expecting the Blue Devils to cover the three points, I’ll simply take them to win outright on Saturday night.

Pick: Duke Moneyline (-148 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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