Ekaterina Alexandrova vs. Iga Swiatek Prediction, Odds for US Open Fourth Round

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Ekaterina Alexandrova vs. Iga Swiatek match in the fourth round of the US Open.

Iga Swiatek is favored to reach the quarterfinals of the US Open. / Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

Two of the best women’s tennis players in the world face off in the fourth round of the US Open on Monday, as No. 2 Iga Swiatek takes on No. 13 Ekaterina Alexandrova in what will be their seventh head-to-head match all time.

The defending Wimbledon champion, Swiatek has made the semifinal of every Grand Slam in 2025, and she won the US Open back in 2022. Last year, Swiatek made the quarterfinals of the US Open before bowing out, and she’ll aim to reach that round again on Monday.

As for Alexandrova, this is her first fourth-round appearance at the US Open in her career. It’s been a solid season for Alexandrova – this is her third fourth-round appearance in a Grand Slam in 2025 – but she has yet to reach a quarterfinal in a Grand Slam in her career.

Does that change in this match?

Here’s a look at the odds, each player’s path to the fourth round and my prediction. 

Ekaterina Alexandrova vs. Iga Swiatek Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

• Ekaterina Alexandrova: +265
• Iga Swiatek: -350

Total

• 21.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Ekaterina Alexandrova vs. Iga Swiatek How to Watch

• Date: Monday, Sept. 1
• Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN/ESPN+

Ekaterina Alexandrova: How Did They Get Here?

Alexandrova has been dominant so far at the US Open, losing just five games in her first-round match, four in her second-round match and one in her third-round match.

She’s still an underdog in this match, and her history in New York may be the reason. This is the first fourth-round appearance at the US Open for Alexandrova, and she has never made the quarterfinals in a Grand Slam in her career. 

Iga Swiatek: How Did They Get Here?

Swiatek needed three sets to get through her second round match, but she knocked off No. 29 Anna Kalinskaya in straight sets in Round 3 to advance.

The No. 2 player in the world has been relatively successful at the US Open, as this is her fifth consecutive appearance in the fourth round or better. She’s 4-2 against Alexandrova in her career, including wins in four of their last five head-to-head matches. 

Ekaterina Alexandrova vs. Iga Swiatek Prediction and What the Odds Say

Based on the latest odds for this match – Swiatek -350 – the No. 2 player in the world has an implied probability of 77.78 percent to make the quarterfinals.

Swiatek has been a machine in 2025, making semifinal after semifinal at Grand Slam events before breaking through with a win at Wimbledon. Now, she’s looking to build on a strong showing so far at the US Open.

While Swiatek has not won every match in straight sets at the US Open, she hasn’t exactly been in trouble either. The No. 2 player in the world is 4-2 against Alexandrova in her career, and she beat her in 2025 in straight sets on grass in Germany.

Now, Alexandrova has won their last meeting on a hard surface (2024 in Miami), but her lack of success at Grand Slams is hard to look past.

Swiatek has made the quarters in 12 different Grand Slam events to Alexandrova’s zero. 

I have to give the defending Wimbledon champ the edge in this match. 

Pick: Swiatek to Win (-350 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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