Elena Rybakina vs. Marketa Vondrousova Prediction, Odds for US Open Fourth Round

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Elena Rybakina vs. Marketa Vondrousova match in the fourth round of the US Open.

Elena Rybakina is favored in the fourth round on Sunday. / Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

World No. 9 Elena Rybakina has a chance to reach the quarterfinals of the US Open for the first time in her career on Sunday night, as she’ll take on Marketa Vondrousova in the fourth round.

Rybakina had never made it further than the third round prior to the 2025 US Open, and now she faces a formidable opponent in Vondrousova, who made the quarterfinals of the US Open in 2023 and has a Grand Slam (2023 Wimbledon) under her belt in her career.

Rybakina won Wimbledon in 2022, and she has a runner-up showing at the Australian Open on her resume as well. However, she has not fared nearly as well in New York and is looking to change that as a favorite in Sunday’s match.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, each player’s path to Round 4 and my prediction for Rybakina-Vondrousova. 

Elena Rybakina vs. Marketa Vondrousova Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

• Elena Rybakina: -240
• Marketa Vondrousova: +180

Total

• 21.5 (Over -130/Under -105)

Elena Rybakina vs. Marketa Vondrousova How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Aug. 31
• Time: 9:00 p.m. EST
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN2/ESPN+

Elena Rybakina: How Did They Get Here? 

Rybakina has been pretty dominant so far in the US Open, winning all three of her opening matches in straight sets. 

She’s dropped just 15 games in total, and she has two matches where she dropped three games or less. This is by far the best that she’s looked at a US Open, but oddsmakers aren’t sold on setting her as a gigantic favorite like some of the other contenders are in Round 4. 

Marketa Vondrousova: How Did They Get Here? 

Vondrousova did not participate in the US Open in 2024, but she did make the quarterfinals in 2023 and the fourth round in 2018. So, this is somewhat familiar territory for the 26-year-old.

In the 2025 US Open, Vondrousova has won each of her matches in straight sets, knocking off No. 32 McCartney Kessler in the second round and No. 7 Jasmine Paolini in Round 3. Can she pull off an upset against another top-10 player tonight? 

Elena Rybakina vs. Marketa Vondrousova Prediction and What the Odds Say

Based on the latest odds – Rybakina -240 – the No. 9 player in the world has an implied probability of 70.59 percent to reach the quarterfinals.

So far in 2025, Rybakina has yet to earn a quarterfinal berth at a Grand Slam, but she has made the fourth round three times now with this appearance at the US Open.

This is far from an easy match – as the odds indicate – as Vondrousova has already knocked off multiple ranked players, including a top-10 player, to make the fourth round.

Even though Rybakina has made quick work of some of her earlier opponents in the US Open, I don’t think that’ll be the case on Sunday.

Vondrousova’s wins have been impressive, and she’s played a lot of games to get them done as an underdog. She played 22 in Round 1, 21 in Round 2 and 20 in Round 3. If she’s able to force a third set on Sunday, this number will almost certainly go OVER – barring multiple 6-0 wins.

Meanwhile, Rybakina did play 22 games in her Round 2 match, so it’s not impossible that she wins in straight sets and still goes over this total games number.  

Pick: OVER 21.5 Games (-130 at DraftKings)

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and place a $5 bet to earn a guaranteed $200 in bonus bets plus over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket. Regardless of the outcome of your wager,DraftKings will add eight $25 bonus bet tokens to your new account and award one promo code for a discounted NFL Sunday ticket subscription.