Falcons vs. Buccaneers Best NFL Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football in Week 15 (Bet on Bucky Irving)

Breaking down the best prop bets for the Atlanta Falcons-Tampa Bay Buccaneers matchup in Week 15.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving is a solid prop target in Week 15. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

A ton of intriguing offensive players will take the field on Thursday night between the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which means there are some fun player prop angles to bet.

Both of these teams are limping to the finish line in 2025, as the Bucs have blown a lead in the NFC South by losing four of their last five games while Atlanta is eliminated from playoff contention.

Michael Penix Jr. is out for the season and Drake London has missed multiple weeks with a PCL sprain, leaving the Atlanta offense in a tough spot after Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts. Kirk Cousins led his team to just nine points in Week 14 against Seattle, but the Tampa Bay defense is a little more beatable on Thursday.

As for the Bucs, they are hoping to get back on track after losing to the New Orleans Saints in Week 14. Baker Mayfield has taken a step back recently, but the return of running back Bucky Irving has been a positive for the team’s offense.

Here’s a breakdown of my favorite props for this game, including a pick for Irving in primetime. 

Best NFL Prop Bets for Falcons vs. Buccaneers

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Bijan Robinson UNDER 75.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
• Bucky Irving 16+ Rush Attempts (-137)
• Baker Mayfield UNDER 217.5 Passing Yards (-111)

Bijan Robinson UNDER 75.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Robinson has put together a strong 2025 season despite all the issues plaguing the Atlanta offense, as he’s averaging 5.0 yards per carry and has already cleared the 1,000-yard mark (1,081 rushing yards) in 2025.

However, this is a tough matchup against a Tampa Bay team that is allowing just 4.2 yards per carry and ranks third in the NFL in EPA/Rush this season. The Bucs held Robinson to just 24 yards on the ground (on 12 carries) in Week 1. 

So, I think the UNDER may be worth a look in this market, especially since the Bucs’ pass defense is in the bottom half of the league. Robinson has 56 catches for 602 yards this season, so Atlanta may try to involve him more in the passing game on Thursday.

Robinson has 76 or more rushing yards in just six of his 13 games this season, so it’s not crazy to think that he’ll fall short of this number against such an elite run defense. 

Bucky Irving 16+ Rush Attempts (-137)

Since returning in Week 13, Irving has carried the ball 32 times (15 and 17 carries in his two games) for the Bucs while rushing for 116 yards and a score. He also has four receptions and a receiving touchdown during this two-game stretch.

Irving is getting a ton of looks even though he’s played right around 50 percent of the team’s snaps, and I think his touches could go up on the ground in this matchup.

Atlanta ranks 26th in the NFL in EPA/Rush this season, and it’s allowed 4.5 yards per carry – tied for the ninth-most in the NFL. 

With the Bucs’ passing offense struggling in recent weeks, Irving could end up having a big game on the ground. He’s carried the ball at least 14 times in every game he’s played in this season, giving the second-year back a tremendous floor when it comes to this prop. 

Baker Mayfield UNDER 217.5 Passing Yards (-111)

After a strong start to the season where he was in the MVP conversation, Baker Mayfield has fallen off in the second half of the campaign.

The Bucs quarterback has failed to clear 217.5 passing yards in five of his last six games, and he’s completing just 58.1 percent of his passes for 159.2 yards per game over that stretch.

Even with Chris Godwin back in the last couple of weeks, Mayfield has failed to crack the 200-yard mark, throwing for 122 yards in the loss to the Saints in Week 14.

Now, he has to take on an Atlanta team that ranks 12th in the NFL in EPA/Pass and 10th in opponent passing yards this season. Mayfield is an easy fade candidate on a short week.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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