Falcons vs. Buccaneers Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 15

The Bucs are just 1-5 against the spread at home this season and could be in trouble in Week 15.

Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts Sr. / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a must-win matchup in Week 15 of the 2025 season on Thursday night after they lost to the New Orleans Saints in Week 14. 

The Bucs are 7-6 in the 2025 season and are tied record-wise atop the NFC South with the Carolina Panthers, who were on the bye in Week 14. So, Tampa Bay has a crucial game against the lowly Atlanta Falcons in Week 15, as a loss could be detrimental to its hopes of winning the division. 

Baker Mayfield and company have fallen apart in recent weeks, losing four of their five games out of the bye week. They’ve also been terrible at home this season, covering the spread in just one of their six home games.

Can they turn it around on a short week?

Atlanta is coming off a blowout loss to the Seattle Seahawks, and the Kirk Cousins experience has not yielded positive results after Michael Penix Jr. went down with a season-ending injury.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, a key player to watch and my prediction for this Week 15 matchup. 

Falcons vs. Buccaneers Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Falcons +4.5 (-105)
• Bucs -4.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• Falcons: +185
• Bucs: -225

Total

• 44.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Falcons vs. Buccaneers How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, Dec. 11
• Time: 8:15 p.m. EST
• Venue: Raymond James Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): Prime Video
• Falcons record: 4-9
• Bucs record: 7-6

Falcons vs. Buccaneers Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay is 5-8 against the spread this season.
• Atlanta is 5-7-1 against the spread this season.
• The Buccaneers are just 1-5 against the spread at home this season.
• The Falcons are 3-3 against the spread on the road this season.
• The OVER is 6-6-1 in the Falcons’ games this season. 
• The OVER is 7-6 in the Buccaneers’ games this season. 

Falcons vs. Buccaneers Injury Reports

Falcons Injury Report

• TBA

Buccaneers Injury Report

• TBA

Falcons vs. Buccaneers Key Player to Watch

Bucky Irving, Running Back, Buccaneers

Bucky Irving returned to action in Week 13 after missing most of the season with shoulder and foot injuries, and he has quickly returned to a sizable workload.

Irving has scored in back-to-back weeks, catching a touchdown in Week 14 in the team’s loss to New Orleans. Irving has 32 carries and four receptions over the last two games, returning to a sizable workload in this offense.

With the Bucs coming off a brutal loss at home, they may need to lean more on Irving with this passing offense short-handed with Mike Evans (broken collarbone) sidelined. 

Irving is a solid prop target in Week 15 as a key piece of the Tampa Bay attack. 

Falcons vs. Buccaneers Prediction and Pick

Both of these teams are struggling right now, but I have a hard time laying the points with Tampa Bay, especially since it has struggled to cover at home all season. The Bucs have covered in just one home game, and they’ve been outclassed by just about everyone since their bye week.

Tampa Bay entered Week 14 in the middle of the pack in EPA/Play in both offense (15th) and defense (18th), and that only looks worse after an outright loss to New Orleans.

The Falcons aren’t much better, entering Week 14 at 17th in EPA/Play on defense and 23rd in EPA/Play on offense before getting blown out by the Seahawks.

Still, I’d much rather take the points in this game with Tampa Bay’s season hanging in the balance. Atlanta should be able to move the ball against a Bucs team that isn’t nearly as dominant as the Seahawks, who boast a top-10 defense in EPA/Play this season.

Pick: Falcons +4.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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